Risk Assessment Of Power Systems

Preface 1 Introduction 1.1 Risk in Power Systems 1.2 Basic Concepts of Power System Risk Assessment 1.3 Outline of the Book 2 Outage Models of System Components 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Models of Independent Outages 2.3 Models of Dependent Outages 2.4 Conclusions 3 Parameter Estimation in Outage Models 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Point Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data 3.3 Interval Estimation of Mean and Variance of Failure Data 3.4 Estimating Failure Frequency of Individual Components 3.5 Estimating Probability from a Binomial Distribution 3.6 Experimental Distribution of Failure Data and Its Test 3.7 Estimating Parameters in Aging Failure Models 3.8 Conclusions 4 Elements of Risk Evaluation Methods 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Methods for Simple Systems 4.3 Methods for Complex Systems 4.4. Conclusions 5 Risk Evaluation Techniques for Power Systems 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Techniques Used in Generation-Demand Systems 5.3 Techniques Used in Radial Distribution Systems 5.4 Techniques Used in Substation Configurations 5.5 Techniques Used in Composite Generation and Transmission Systems 5.6 Conclusions 6 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Development Planning 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Concept of Probabilistic Planning 6.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 6.4 Example 1: Selecting the Lowest-Cost Planning Alternative 6.5 Example 2: Applying Different Planning Criteria 6.6 Conclusions 7 Application of Risk Evaluation to Transmission Operation Planning 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Concept of Risk Evaluation in Operation Planning 7.3 Risk Evaluation Method 7.4 Example 1: Determining the Lowest-Risk Operation Mode 7.5 Example 2: A Simple Case by Hand Calculations 7.6 Conclusions 8 Application of Risk Evaluation to Generation Source Planning 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Procedure for Reliability Planning 8.3 Simulation of Generation and Risk Costs 8.4 Example 1: Selecting Location and Size of Cogenerators 8.5 Example 2: Making a Decision to Retire a Local Generation Plant 8.6 Conclusions 9 Selection of Substation Configurations 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Load Curtailment Model 9.3 Risk Evaluation Approach 9.4 Example 1: Selecting Substation Configuration 9.5 Example 2: Selecting Transmission Line Arrangement Associated with Substations 9.6 Conclusions 10 Reliability-Centered Maintenance 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Basic Tasks in RCM 10.3 Example 1: Transmission Maintenance Scheduling 10.4 Example 2: Workforce Planning in Maintenance 10.5 Example 3: A Simple Case Performed by Hand Calculations 10.6 Conclusions 11 Probabilistic Spare-Equipment Analysis 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Spare-Equipment Analysis Based on Reliability Criteria 11.3 Spare-Equipment Analysis Using the Probabilistic Cost Method 11.4 Example 1: Determining Number and Timing of Spare Transformers 11.5 Example 2: Determining Redundancy Level of 500 kV Reactors 11.6 Conclusions 12 Reliability-Based Transmission-Service Pricing 12.1 Introduction 12.2 Basic Concept 12.3 Calculation Methods 12.4 Rate Design 12.5 Application Example 12.6 Conclusions 13 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment 13.1 Introduction 13.2 Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation Methods 13.3 Procedure 13.4 Examples 13.5 Conclusions Appendix A Basic Probability Concepts A.1 Probability Calculation Rules A.2 Random Variable and its Distribution A.3 Important Distributions in Risk Evaluation A.4 Numerical Characteristics Appendix B Elements of Monte Carlo Simulation B.1 General Concept B.2 Random Number Generators B.3 Inverse Transform Method of Generating Random Variates B.4 Important Random Variates in Risk Evaluation Appendix C Power-Flow Models C.1 AC Power-Flow Models C.2 DC Power-Flow Models Appendix D Optimization Algorithms D.1 Simplex Methods for Linear Programming D.2 Interior Point Method for Nonlinear Programming Appendix E Three Probability Distribution Tables References Index About the Author.