Probabilistic Transmission System Planning

Preface and Acknowledgments. 1 Introduction. 1.1 Overview of Transmission Planning. 1.2 Necessity of Probabilistic Transmission Planning. 1.3 Outline of the book. 2 Basic Concepts of Probabilistic Planning. 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 Probabilistic Planning Criteria. 2.3 Procedure of Probabilistic Planning. 2.4 Other Aspects in Probabilistic Planning. 2.5 Conclusions. 3 Loading Modeling. 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Load Forecast. 3.3 Load Clustering. 3.4 Uncertainty and Correlation of Bus Loads. 3.5 Voltage- and Frequency-Dependent Bus Loads. 3.6 Conclusions. 4 System Analysis Techniques. 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 Power Flow. 4.3 Probabilistic Power Flow. 4.4 Optimal Power Flow (OPF). 4.5 Probabilistic Search Optimization Algorithms. 4.6 Contingency Analysis and Ranking. 4.7 Voltage Stability Evaluation. 4.8 Transient Stability Solution. 4.9 Conclusions. 5 Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation. 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 Reliability Indices. 5.3 Reliability Worth Assessment. 5.4 Substation Adequacy Evaluation. 5.5 Composite System Adequacy Evaluation. 5.6 Probabilistic Voltage Stability Assessment. 5.7 Probabilistic Transient Stability Assessment. 5.8 Conclusions. 6 Economic Analysis Methods. 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 Cost Components of Projects. 6.3 Time Value of Money and Present Value Method. 6.4 Depreciation. 6.5 Economic Assessment of Investment Projects. 6.6 Economic Assessment of Equipment Replacement. 6.7 Uncertainty Analysis in Economic Assessment. 6.8 Conclusions. 7 Data in Probabilistic Transmission Planning. 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 Data for Power System Analysis. 7.3 Reliability Data in Probabilistic Planning. 7.4 Other Data. 7.5 Conclusions. 8 Fuzzy Techniques for Data Uncertainty. 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Fuzzy Models of Systems Component Outages. 8.3 Mixed Fuzzy and Probabilistic Models for Loads. 8.4 Combined Probabilistic and Fuzzy Techniques. 8.5 Example 1: Case Study Not Considering Weather Effects. 8.6 Example 2: Case Study Considering Weather Effects. 8.7 Conclusions. 9 Network Reinforcement Planning. 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Probabilistic Planning of Bulk Power Supply System. 9.3 Probabilistic Planning of Transmission Loop Network. 9.4 Conclusions. 10 Retirement Planning of Network Components. 10.1 Introduction. 10.2 Retirement Timing of an Aged AC Cable. 10.3 Replacement Strategy of an HVDC Cable. 10.4 Conclusions. 11 Substation Planning. 11.1 Introduction. 11.2 Probabilistic Planning of Substation Configuration. 11.3 Transformer Spare Planning. 11.4 Conclusions. 12 Single Circuit Supply System Planning. 12.1 Introduction. 12.2 Reliability Performance of Single Circuit Supply Systems. 12.3 Planning Method of Single-Circuit Supply Systems. 12.4 Application to Actual Utility System. 12.5 Conclusions. Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory and Statistics. Appendix B Elements of Fuzzy Mathematics. Appendix C Elements of Reliability Evaluation. References. Index.