Changes in Flood Risk in Europe

1 Introduction/Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz -- 1.1 Preliminaries -- 1.2 Structure of the Book -- 1.3 Flood Risk Change -- 1.4 Concluding Remarks -- I FACETS OF CHANGE -- 2 Changes in Flood Risk - Setting the Stage/Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Erich J. Plate, Harvey J. E. Rodda,John C. Rodda, Hans Joachim Scheilnhuber & Witold G. Strupczewski -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Flood Risk -- 2.3 Multi-causality -- 2.4 Recent Changes in Flood Risk -- 2.5 Adaptation - Flood Risk Reduction -- 2.6 Concluding Remarks -- 3 Catalogue of Large Floods in Europe in the 20th Century/Adam Chorynski, lwona Pinskwar, Wolfgang Kron, G. Robert Brakenridge & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz -- 3.1 Introduction and Outline -- 3.2 Sources of Information -- 3.3 Known Errors and Uncertainties -- 3.4 The Flood Catalogue -- 3.5 Concluding Remarks -- 4 Large-scale Flooding in Europe, 1961-2005/Christel Prudhomme, Simon Parry, Marie Genevier, Jamie Hannaford & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 A Catalogue of European Regional High Flows, 1961-2005 -- 4.3 Flood Peaks and Preceding Circulation Types: Relationships in Europe -- 5 Changing Floods in Europe/lwona Pinskwar, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Pascal Peduzzi,G. Robert Brakenridge, Kerstin Stahl & Jamie Hannaford -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Observed Development of Climatic Drivers -- 5.3 Changes in River Discharge -- 5.4 Changes in Maximum Flow -- 5.5 Exposure to Floods -- 5.6 Changes in Flood Risk in Europe -- 5.7 Concluding Remarks -- 6 Changes in Intense Precipitation in Europe/Olga Zolina -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Data for Estimation of Intense Precipitation -- 6.3 Absolute Precipitation Extremes over Europe -- 6.4 Climate Tendencies in the Relative Precipitation Extremeness over Europe -- 6.5 Changes in Temporal Structure of European Precipitation -- 6.6 Summary and Conclusions -- 7 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium/Rudolf Brazdil, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Gerardo Benito, Gaston Demaree, Neil Macdonald & Lars A. Roald -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Beginnings of Instrumental Hydrological Measurements -- 7.3 Documentary Data about Floods -- 7.4 Historical Floods in Europe in the Past Millennium -- 7.5 Discussion -- 7.6 Conclusions -- II NATIONAL AND REGIONAL PERSPECTIVES ON FLOODS -- 8 Floods in Austria -- 8.1 Guenter Bloschl, RalfMerz, Juraj Parajka, Jose Salinas & Alberto Viglione -- 8.2 Introduction -- 8.3 Flood Processes in Austria -- 8.4 Changes of Floods in the Past -- 9 Predictability of Flood Changes Floods in the Czech Republic/ R. Brazdil, L Reznickova, M. Havlicek & L Elleder -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Hydrological Observations -- 9.3 Changes of Factors Influencing Floods 1901-2010 -- 9.4 Frequency and Magnitude of Floods, 1901-2010 -- 9.5 The Most Disastrous Floods, 1901-2010 -- 9.6 Floods in the Context of the Changing Environment: Discussion -- 9.7 Conclusions -- 10 Floods in France/Ignazio Giuntoli, Benjamin Renard & Michel Lang -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 The Data Set -- 10.3 Methods -- 10.4 Results -- 10.5 Conclusions -- 11 Flood Risk from a Holistic Perspective - Observed Changes in Germany/Fred F. Hattermann, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Shaochun Huang, Tobias Vetter,Wolfgang Kron, Olaf Burghoff, Bruno Merz, Axel Bronstert, Valentina Krysanova,Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Peter Werner & Ylva Hauf -- 11.1 Introduction and Outline -- 11.2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Germany -- 11.3 Data and Methodology -- 11.4 Changes of Factors Driving Flood Hazard -- 11.5 Non-climatic Drivers of Flood Hazard: Land-use Change and River Training Effects -- 11.6 River Discharge -- 11.7 Flood Damage -- 11.8 Concluding Remarks -- 12 Floods in Greece/D. Koutsoyiannis, N. Mamassis, A. Efstratiadis, N. Zarkadoulas & I. Markonis -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Reflections from the Past: Analysis of Palaeofloods -- 12.3 Reflections from the Past: Flood Mythology -- 12.4 Reflections from the Past: Flood Control in Greek Antiquity -- 12.5 Modern Greece: Positive and Negative Experiences -- 12.6 Concluding Remarks -- 13 Floods in Iceland/Ami Snorrason, Bergur Einarsson, Emmanuel Pagneux, Jorunn Hardardottir,Matthew J. Roberts, Oddur Sigurdsson, Ooinn Thorarinsson,Philippe Crochet, Tomas Johannesson & Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Types of Floods in Iceland -- 13.3 Case Studies -- 13.4 Concluding Remarks -- 14 Flood Risk in Italy/Paola Salvati, Cinzia Bianchi, Mauro Rossi & Fausto Guzzetti -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 Record of Harmful Flood Events in Italy -- 14.3 Risk Evaluation -- 14.4 Comparison to Other Natural Hazards -- 14.5 Conclusions -- 15 Floods in The Netherlands/J. K. Vrijling -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 Chronology of Major Flood Events -- 15.3 Conclusions -- 16 Floods in Norway/Lars Andreas Roald -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 Winter Floods -- 16.3 Snowmelt Spring Floods -- 16.4 Summer Rainfall Floods -- 16.5 Autumn Floods -- 16.6 Ice-run Floods -- 16.7 Floods from Glacier-dammed Lakes - Jokullhlaup -- 16.8 Trends in Streamflow and the Occurrence of Floods -- 16.9 Update-Floods in 2011 -- 17 Floods in Poland/Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Andrzej Dobrowolski, Halina Lorenc,Tadeusz Niedzwiedz, lwona Pinskwar & Piotr Kowalczak -- 17.1 Introduction -- 17.2 Hydrography of Poland in a Nutshell -- 17.3 Climatic Drivers -- 17.4 Causes of Floods in Poland and their Spatial and Temporal Distribution -- 17.5 Chronology of Floods in Poland -- 17.6 Concluding Remarks -- 18 Floods in Switzerland/Petra Schmocker-Fackel & Felix Naef -- 18.1 Introduction -- 18.2 Data and Study Site -- 18.3 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1850 -- 18.4 Atmospheric Circulation and Floods -- 18.5 Changes in Flood Frequency since 1500 -- 18.6 Concluding Remarks -- 19 Flood Risk in the UK: Evidence of Change andManagement Responses/Jamie Hannaford & Jim W. Hall -- 19.1 Introduction -- 19.2 Background: Climate, Hydrology and Flooding -- 19.3 Recent Major Floods in the UK -- 19.4 Observed Climate Changes Relevant to Flooding -- 19.5 Trends in Fluvial Flooding -- 19.6 Links Between Flooding and Atmospheric Circulation -- 19.7 A Longer-term Perspective -- 19.8 Changes in Flood Risk and Flood Risk Management -- 19.9 Concluding Remarks -- 20 Floods in the Alpine Areas of Europe/Antoine Bard, Benjamin Renard & Michel Lang -- 20.1 Introduction -- 20.2 The Data Set -- 20.3 Methods -- 20.4 Results -- 20.5 Conclusions -- 21 Floods in the Iberian Peninsula/Gerardo Benito & Maria J. Machado -- 21.1 Introduction -- 21.2 Flood Hydroclimatology -- 21.3 Observed Flood Records -- 21.4 Socio-economic Losses Due to Flooding -- 21.5 Discussion and Conclusions -- III DETECTION AND ATTRIBUTION OF CHANGE, AND PROSPECTS -- 22 Detection of Changes/Sheng Yue, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz <& Linghui Wang -- 22.1 Introduction -- 22.2 Statistical Principles for Trend Detection -- 22.3 Site Significance Tests -- 22.4 Field Significance Tests -- 22.5 Pitfalls in Trend Detection -- 22.6 Procedures for Trend Detection -- 23 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change and Its/Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Wolfgang Cramer -- 23.1 Introduction -- 23.2 Attribution of Global Warming in a Multi-factor Context -- 23.3 Controversy about Detection and Attribution of Climate Change -- 23.4 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Impacts -- 23.5 Concluding Remarks -- 24 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Water Resources/Dieter Gerten, Wolfgang Lucht & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz -- 24.1 Introduction -- 24.2 What Influences Global River Discharge? -- 24.3 Uncertainties in Estimates of Precipitation and River Flow -- 24.4 The Model and Data Used, and Simulations Performed for this Study -- 24.5 Results and Discussion -- 24.6 Conclusion -- 25 Detection and Attribution of Changes in Flood Hazard and Risk/Bruno Merz, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Jose Delgado, Yeshewa Hundecha &Heidi Kreibich -- 25.1 Introduction -- 25.2 Drivers of Changing Flood Hazard and Risk -- 25.3 Changes in Flood Hazard -- 25.4 Changes in Vulnerability and Risk -- 25.5 Climate Change and Flood Trends -- 25.6 Conclusions -- 26 Changing Flood Risk - A Re-insurer's Viewpoint/by Wolfgang Kron -- 26.1 Introduction -- 26.2 Flood Disasters and Flood Losses in Europe -- 26.3 Types of Flood -- 26.4 Reasons for the Increasing Flood Risk -- 26.5 Flood Risk Reduction -- 26.6 Final Remarks -- 27 Projections of Flood Risk in Europe by Christel Prudhomme, Jennifer Williamson, Simon Parry & European Regional High Flow Catalogue Simulated from Observed Climate -- 27.1 The Future of Regional High Flows in Europe: Results from WATCH -- 27.2 Simulations -- Index.