Interest Rates

Part 1 Introduction: from Wenings to Wall Street. Part 2 Financial markets: financial markets yesterday and today - interest-rate differences, the institutional credit structure, volatility and monetarism, the budget deficit; dangers in the rapid growth of debt - rapid debt growth, danger signals, forces that encourage credit expansion, policy proposals; the integrity of credit - credit without a guardian, the proper role of financial institutions, the role of government; a disregard for capital - manifestations of the desregard for capital, social claims, defenders of capital; ferment in financial institutions - regulation deregulation, financial innovation, financial institutions are unique, managing risk; international financial problems - laissez faire, official intervention, international cooperation, fixed versus floating exchange rates; banking in changing world credit markets - banking growth, growth of euromarkets, banking linkages and innovations, the freeing of markets; the equity market over the long term - growth of the equity market, the emerging global equity market, the growth of proxy instruments, the expanding role of the institutional investor, a more demanding role for securities dealers, new challenges for investment decision makers; fallen financial dogmas and beliefs - high real interest rates encourage substantial increases in savings, high real interest rates discourage economic recovery, financial deregulation lowers the general level of interest rates, credit quality is constant in our financial system, the growth of debt is closely linked to growth in nominal gross national product, a nation's large trade deficit weakens its currency in foreign exchange markets, fiscal policy can be a flexible anticyclical tool and, combined with monetary, can prolong economic expansion and limit economic and financial excesses. Part 3 Interest rates: secular and cyclical trends in interest rates - secular trends, cyclical trends, extremes in quality yields, interest rates and economic activity, conventional wisdoms; the many faces of the yield curve - theories, four major yield curves, the optimum long opportunity, prospects; changing techniques in forecasting interest rates - anticipation and realization, the effects of deregulation, international credit flows, other benefits from credit flow analysis; new interest-rate precepts - the perception of high and low interest rates does not remain constant, substantial interest-rate volatility is here to stay and should be incorporated into portfolio and financing decision making, bonds are bought more for their price appreciation potential than for their income protection, (part contents).