Exploring and Shaping International Futures
Description
This Open Access book offers a structured approach to thinking about the future, covering local, global, and cross-sectoral perspectives. It begins by posing three fundamental questions: What futures are normatively desirable? What trajectories do current trends suggest? And how might human agency influence those trajectories? Using the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a reference point, the book examines human, environmental, and sociopolitical development through empirical exploration and long-term scenario analysis.
It also explains and supports usage of the International Futures (IFs) system, a powerful tool for scenario building and policy exploration. The chapters cover population, economics, agriculture, energy, the environment, and governance. Each chapter combines forecasts, model insights, and leverage points for change. The final chapter synthesizes these findings by comparing global scenario sets and encouraging critical thinking about alternative futures. Scholars, analysts, and policymakers will find this book appealing. It combines empirical depth with accessible modeling tools. These tools support education, strategic foresight, and informed decision-making.
More details
Person
Barry B. Hughes is a Distinguished University Professor at the Josef Korbel School of Global and Public Affairs, University of Denver, USA, and founded the Frederick S. Pardee Institute for International Futures. He initially developed and then led development of multiple subsequent generations of the International Futures (IFs) system, a widely used and freely available tool for long-term global forecasting and scenario analysis. His work has supported strategic planning for organizations including the UN, U.S. National Intelligence Council, European Commission, and several national governments. Hughes focuses on improving the human condition through data-driven analysis of global trends and dynamics in development, sustainability, and governance. He holds a B.S. in Mathematics from Stanford and a PhD in Political Science from the University of Minnesota, USA,. Hughes has also contributed to major publications such as several Global Trends and UN Human Development Reports, and has significantly advanced integrated modeling for both education and policy insight.
Content
Part 1. Foundations: Improving Global Futures.- Chapter 1. Action in the Face of Uncertainty.- Chapter 2. Global Change.- Chapter 3. Causal Analysis and World Views.- Part 2. The International Futures (IFs) System.- Chapter 4. Understanding IFs and Its Basic Use.- Chapter 5. Scenario Analysis with IFs.- Part 3. Human Development.- Chapter 6. Population.- Chapter 7. Economics.- Chapter 8. Human Wellbeing.- Part 4. Sustainable Development.- Chapter 9. Food and Agriculture.- Chapter 10. Energy.- Chapter 11. The Environment.- Part 5. Sociopolitical Impetus.- Chapter 12. Domestic Sociopolitical Systems.- Chapter 13. The Global Sociopolitical System.- Part 6. Integrated Scenario Analysis.- Chapter 14. Preferred (and Other) Futures.