The Autocrat's Predicament

Reviews / Votes

"China's economic growth has been outstanding over the past four decades, but continuing that trajectory depends on changing China's growth model from one of extensive growth to one of intensive growth. Tim Heath argues that this transformation depends more on political considerations than economic policies. In particular, he argues that single party, Leninist-style polities have a difficult time transforming their economic systems because they usually lack what he calls an 'enabling condition' - a combination of a strong central government, a weak opposition, and a cohesive public - but efforts to shore up one of these conditions tends to weaken one or more of the other two conditions. This is a novel and welcome new approach to understanding China's political economy." -- Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University "This compelling book explains why economic modernization requires at least limited political liberalization. Heath's argument offers a clear warning to China's leaders and holds important insights for China watchers abroad." -- Bruce Dickson, George Washington University "Heath's timely and expansive book puts China's pursuit of innovation-driven growth in comparative perspective, with an emphasis on politics. The Autocrat's Predicament shows how difficult it is for authoritarian regimes to orchestrate economic growth and renders Xi Jinping's particular political strategies legible. Anyone interested in understanding the evolution and future of China's pursuit of political control and economic growth should read this book." -- Meg Rithmire, Harvard Business School "Timothy Heath has written an insightful and exhaustive exploration of why and how China's rulers turn to force and coercion to solve economic problems, and why this matters for the world. It is essential reading for anyone attempting to understand China's future trajectory." -- Jude Blanchette, Freedman Chair, CSIS In The Autocrats Dilemma, Heath highlights the importance of the political conditions that autocratic leaders must create to pursue policies that foster intensive economic growth. He offers a novel contribution to the literature on the political economy of one-party authoritarian states, with sobering implications for China's future economic growth and political development. -- M. Taylor Fravel, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology "Countries strive to implement policies that bring about sustained economic growth through more efficient use of resources and rising productivity, but these policies often fail. Tim Heath presents a new and convincing explanation behind the success or failure of these policies, identifying an enabling condition of strong central leadership, weak elite opposition, and a cohesive public. He applies this to single-party authoritarian states, but it is applicable far more broadly, making this book an important contribution to researchers and practitioners alike for understanding the foundations of economic policy reform." -- Howard J. Shatz, RAND Corporation Autocrats, particularly in Leninist systems, frequently fail in their efforts to achieve a high-productivity economy while maintaining political stability and staying in the saddle of power themselves. With his framework of "enabling conditions," Timothy Heath explains why, looking at three case studies on post-Mao China, and one each on Taiwan and the USSR in its waning period. If China's Xi Jinping cracks the code of how to simultaneously achieve elite cohesion, weak elite opposition, and cohesive public support, he will do what few others have done before. The Autocrat's Predicament is a thought-provoking book. -- David M. Lampton, The Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies "Tim Heath approaches the miraculous rise and spectacular go-slow of China's economic development with a comparative method. His careful choice of five cases, a mixture of longitudinal and horizontal comparison, enables him to highlight the political aspect of China's political economy, explain China's critical challenges, and offer practical prescriptions for structural and policy changes. Taking politics as an agency issue with potential for change, for better or worse, Heath has skillfully avoided the two hypes on the same spectrum: China's eternal economic growth or China's inevitable collapse. With the theoretical vision of a political economist and the strategic sensibility of an intelligence analyst, Heath has successfully offered us a grand tour with rigor on one of the most vexing topics in our time." -- Ming Xia, The City University of New York, the Graduate Center; author of The Dual Developmental State (2000/2017), People's Congresses and Governance in China (2008)