Ladders of Escalation
Description
This Brief provides a detailed exploration of a modified "escalation ladders" model as applied to state-sponsored targeted killings in the post-Cold War political landscape. Using a modified version of Herman Kahn's "ladders of escalation," the authors offer a systematic comparison of the components and features of multiple state-sponsored killing programs.
The Brief begins with a historical overview of the creation of escalations ladders in the 1950s and 1960s, their original applications in conflicts between nuclear superpowers, and their discontinuation in the wake of the end of the Cold War. The second part illustrates how the modified Ladders of Escalation model can be utilized in various national intelligence agencies, through international case studies: Russia, Israel, the United States, India, and France. In the third section, the authors draw parallels between the models, ending with further discussion on how Ladders of Escalation can support, or even improve, current intelligence practices.
Providing a new and valuable theoretical framework for analyzing political violence, this Brief will be of interest to scholars and students of international relations, critical security studies, intelligence studies, as well as intelligence professionals and human rights practitioners.
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Persons
Adam Hanzel
is a PhD candidate in the International Relations and European Studies Department at Metropolitan University Prague. He is also a PhD fellow in the EU-GLOCTER Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action. He holds bachelor's degrees in computational linguistics and Slavic and Eurasian studies and a master's degree in Slavic and Eurasian Studies, all of which were completed at the University of Texas at Austin. His work specializes in mixed methods and interdisciplinary approaches, combining regional expertise and qualitative analysis with natural language processing and machine learning.
Kiril Avramov
is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Slavic & Eurasian Studies (DSES) and a Fellow at the Intelligence Studies Project (ISP) at the University of Texas at Austin. He holds courtesy appointments at the Department of Government and the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin. Previously, he served as the Acting Vice-Rector for International Relations and Research at the New Bulgarian University (NBU) in Sofia, Bulgaria, and as an Assistant Professor of Political Science at NBU. He studied previously at Gustavus Adolphus College (USA/MN), the University of Aberdeen (Scotland), the University of Sofia (Bulgaria), Central European University (Hungary), and NBU. He taught in the Department of Political Science at the University of Sofia until 2005.
Content
Part 1- Escalation Modeling: Chapter 1: Introduction.- Chapter 2: Ladders of Escalation.- Part 2- Case Studies: Chapter 3: Russia.- Chapter 4: Comparative Cases.- Part 3- Conclusion: Chapter 5- Conclusion.