Dynamic Decision Theory

1. Introduction.- 2. A Dynamic Theory of Decision Processes.- 2.1 The Panel Data-Based Discrete Choice Approach.- 2.2 The Master Equation View in Dynamic Choice Processes.- 2.3 The Decision Process.- 2.3.1 Decision Space and Decision Configuration.- 2.3.2 Individual Decision Processes and Conditional Probability.- 2.3.3 Individual and Configurational Transition Rates.- 2.3.4 Some Functional Forms of the Individual Transition Rates.- 2.4 The Equations of Motion.- 2.4.1 The Master Equation for the Decision Configuration.- 2.4.2 The Translation Operator.- 2.4.3 The Mean Value Equations of the Dynamic Decision Theory.- 2.5 Parameter Estimation.- 2.5.1 Parameter Estimation via Comparison of Transition Rates.- 2.5.2 Parameter Estimation via Comparison of Decision Configurations.- 2.5.3 The Dependence of Trend Parameters on Motivating Factors.- 2.5.4 Scheme of Model Building for Dynamic Decision Processes.- 2.6 Selection Criteria for the Examples.- 3. Shocks in Urban Evolution.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 A Stochastic Model on Shocks in Urban Evolution.- 3.2.1 The Configurational Transition Rates.- 3.2.2 The Master Equation.- 3.2.3 The Individual Transition Rates.- 3.2.4 The Stationary Solution of the Master Equation.- 3.2.5 Equations of Motion for Mean Values and Variances.- 3.2.6 Estimation of the Utility Function and Mobility.- 3.2.7 Regression of Trend Parameters on Socio-Economic Data.- 4. Intra - Urban Migration.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 A Stochastic Model on Intra-Urban Dynamics.- 4.2.1 The Configurational Transition Rates.- 4.2.2 The Master Equation.- 4.2.3 The Stationary Solution of the Master Equation.- 4.2.4 The Mean Value Equations.- 4.2.5 The Parameter Estimation Procedure.- 4.2.6 Empirical Testing of the Land Use Density-Rent Model.- 5. Inter-Regional Migration.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 The Stochastic Migration Model.- 5.2.1 The Individual Transition Rates for the Migration Process.- 5.2.2 The Configurational Transition Rates.- 5.2.3 The Stochastic Equations of Motion.- 5.2.4 The Stationary Solution of the Migratory Master Equation.- 5.2.5 Quasi-Deterministic Equations of Motion.- 5.2.6 The Stationary Solution of the Quasi-Deterministic Equations.- 5.2.7 Determination of Utilities and Mobilities from Empirical Data.- 5.3 Comparative Analysis of Inter-Regional Migration.- 5.3.1 Choice of Comparable Socio-Economic Variables.- 5.3.2 The Global Mobility under Comparative Aspects.- 5.3.3 The Regional Utilities and Preferences of the Federal Republic of Germany.- 5.3.4 Comparison of the Variance of Utilities.- 5.3.5 Comparison of the Migratory Stress.- 6. Chaotic Evolution of Migratory Systems.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 The Migratory Master Equation and Mean Value Equations for Interacting Populations.- 6.2.1 Inter-Group and Intra-Group Interactions of Individuals.- 6.2.2 The Master Equation for Interacting Subpopulations.- 6.2.3 The Deterministic Equations for Interacting Subpopulations.- 6.2.4 The Exact Stationary Solution of the Deterministic Equations.- 6.3 Chaotic Behaviour of Migratory Trajectories.- 6.3.1 A Numerical Simulation.- 6.3.2 Lyapunov Exponents and Fractal Dimensions.- 6.4 Conclusion.- 7. Spatial Interaction Models and their Micro-Foundation.- 7.1 Introduction to Spatial Urban Theory.- 7.2 A Service System as the Basis of the Model.- 7.3 A Master Equation Approach.- 7.3.1 The Total Transition Rates for the Service Sector Model.- 7.3.2 Consumer Dynamics.- 7.3.3 Decision Processes of Developers, Retailers and Land Owners.- 7.4 The Quasi-Deterministic Equations to the Dynamic Service Sector Model.- 7.5 The Stationary Solution of the Service Sector Model.- 7.5.1 Relation between Expenditure Flows and Transportation Costs.- 7.6 Dynamic Simulations and their Interpretation.- 7.6.1 The Influence of Low Transportation Costs.- 7.6.2 The Influence of High Transportation Costs.- 7.7 Concluding Comments.- 8. Further Applications and Extensions.- 8.1 Knowledge, Innovation, Productivity.- 8.1.1 Knowledge as an Endogeneous Input of the Growth Process.- 8.1.2 Regional Decisions about the Investment Ratio.- 8.1.3 Decision Processes Concerning the Percentage Share of Research Investment.- 8.1.4 Some Conjectures.- 8.2 Economic Cycles.- 8.2.1 Short-Term Cycles.- 8.2.2 Long-Term Cycles.- 8.3 Housing and Labour Market.- 8.4 Concluding Remarks.- 9. Appendix: The Master Equation.- 9.1 Deterministic and Probabilistic Description of Systems.- 9.2 Some General Concepts of Probability Theory.- 9.3 The Derivation of the Master Equation.- 9.4 The Stationary Solution of the Master Equation for Detailed Balance.- 9.5 The Stationary Solution of the Master Equation of Chapter 4.- 9.6 The Stationary Solution of the Master Equation of Chapter 5.- 9.7 The Embedding of Random Utility Theory.- 9.7.1 The Multinomial Logit Model.- 9.7.2 The Multinomial Logit Model as Limiting Case of our Dynamic Theory.- 9.8 The Construction of Configurational Transition Rates via Panel Data.- References.