Decision Analysis for Management Judgment

In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis has a major role to play in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face, particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to its largest group of potential users: managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. It shows how decision analysis can be applied so that difficult decisions can be made with greater insight and confidence, and challenges the adequacy of making decisions on the basis of intuition alone. Drawing on ideas from a variety of disciplines, including psychology, management, science and statistics, the book shows how judgement and statistical techniques can be combined to provide a structured and defensible basis for decision making.