Handbook of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis
Published on 26. January 2007
Book
Hardback
264 pages
978-1-84720-136-2 (ISBN)
Description
This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. Examples of various business surveys are described in detail, starting with their objectives, the questions they pose, how they are weighted and extrapolated and the representativeness of their results. A detailed scientific examination of the explanatory value of the data is also made in order to demonstrate their potential usefulness. The Handbook has three parts: firstly, it presents the importance of business surveys for empirical research. Secondly, selected surveys are introduced in detail such as the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo Investment Survey, and thirdly, a broad spectrum of studies - on the consequence of the survey results - is presented. The significance of the surveys applies equally to business cycle analysis and to forecasting. An array of modern methods of time series analysis and econometric model construction is used in these investigations.
This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.
This book will be of interest to an audience comprising members of institutions conducting business surveys, scientists using survey results to analyse and forecast business cycles, and students of empirical economic research.
More details
Series
Language
English
Place of publication
Cheltenham
United Kingdom
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Dimensions
Height: 234 mm
Width: 156 mm
ISBN-13
978-1-84720-136-2 (9781847201362)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Person
Edited by Georg Goldrian, formerly Senior Economist, Department of Business Surveys, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of Munich, Germany
Content
Contents:
Introduction
PART I: PHENOMENON OF BUSINESS CYCLES
1. The Importance of Representative Surveys of Enterprises for
Empirically Oriented Business Cycle Research
Gernot Nerb
PART II: BUSINESS SURVEYS OF THE IFO INSTITUTE
2. Business Survey in Manufacturing
Wolfgang Ruppert
3. Business Survey in Services
Harald Blau
4. Investment Survey in Manufacturing
Annette Weichselberger
5. World Economic Survey
Anna Stangl
6. Innovation Survey
Horst Penzkofer
PART III: ANALYTICAL AND PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF
SURVEY DATA
7. Short-Term Industry Branch Forecasting Based on the Results of
the Ifo Business Survey
Georg Goldrian
8. The Significance of the Ifo Business Survey Data at the Regional
Level
Georg Goldrian
9. Suitability of WES Data for Forecasting Inflation
Sandra Hamella and Harry Haupt
10. Methods of Economic Forecasting and Business Cycle Indicators
Wolfgang Nierhaus and Jan-Egbert Sturm
11. Evaluation and Development of Composite Leading Indicators
Based on Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys
Juerg D. Lindlbauer
12. A Leading Indicator Composed of Survey Data: Appropriate Construction and Prognostic Significance
Georg Goldrian
13. Can the Ifo Business Climate Indicator Improve Short-Term GDP
Forecasts?
Erich Langmantel
14. The Accuracy of Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo Business
Climate
Christian Hott, Andre Kunkel and Gernot Nerb
15. A Leading Indicator for Equipment Investment
Joachim Guertler
16. Ifo Survey on Employment Plans: Sectoral Evaluation
Klaus Abberger
17. On the Methodology of Business Cycle Analysis
Stefan Mittnik and Klaus Wohlrabe
Index
Introduction
PART I: PHENOMENON OF BUSINESS CYCLES
1. The Importance of Representative Surveys of Enterprises for
Empirically Oriented Business Cycle Research
Gernot Nerb
PART II: BUSINESS SURVEYS OF THE IFO INSTITUTE
2. Business Survey in Manufacturing
Wolfgang Ruppert
3. Business Survey in Services
Harald Blau
4. Investment Survey in Manufacturing
Annette Weichselberger
5. World Economic Survey
Anna Stangl
6. Innovation Survey
Horst Penzkofer
PART III: ANALYTICAL AND PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF
SURVEY DATA
7. Short-Term Industry Branch Forecasting Based on the Results of
the Ifo Business Survey
Georg Goldrian
8. The Significance of the Ifo Business Survey Data at the Regional
Level
Georg Goldrian
9. Suitability of WES Data for Forecasting Inflation
Sandra Hamella and Harry Haupt
10. Methods of Economic Forecasting and Business Cycle Indicators
Wolfgang Nierhaus and Jan-Egbert Sturm
11. Evaluation and Development of Composite Leading Indicators
Based on Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys
Juerg D. Lindlbauer
12. A Leading Indicator Composed of Survey Data: Appropriate Construction and Prognostic Significance
Georg Goldrian
13. Can the Ifo Business Climate Indicator Improve Short-Term GDP
Forecasts?
Erich Langmantel
14. The Accuracy of Turning Point Predictions with the Ifo Business
Climate
Christian Hott, Andre Kunkel and Gernot Nerb
15. A Leading Indicator for Equipment Investment
Joachim Guertler
16. Ifo Survey on Employment Plans: Sectoral Evaluation
Klaus Abberger
17. On the Methodology of Business Cycle Analysis
Stefan Mittnik and Klaus Wohlrabe
Index