How to Do Systems Analysis

Preface ix Original Preface from Jack Gibson xiii Acknowledgments xv About the Companion Website xvii Part One: Primer 1. Introduction 3 1.1 What is a System? 4 1.2 Terminology Confusion 6 1.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis 10 1.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems 11 1.5 Transportation Systems: An Example of a Large-Scale System 13 1.6 Systems Integration 16 1.7 What Makes a "Systems Analysis" Different? 17 1.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis 19 1.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis 20 1.10 Development of Systems Analysis as a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND 23 References 26 2. Six Major Phases of Systems Analysis 28 2.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases 28 2.1.1 Determine Goals 28 2.1.2 Establish Criteria for Ranking Alternative Candidates 30 2.1.3 Develop Alternative Solutions 31 2.1.4 Rank Alternatives 32 2.1.5 Iterate 34 2.1.6 Action 35 2.2 The Goal-Centered or Top-Down Approach 35 2.3 The Index of Performance Concept 41 2.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios 45 2.5 Ranking Alternatives 47 2.6 Iteration and the "Error-Embracing" Approach 47 2.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System 51 References 53 3. Goal Development 55 3.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development 55 3.2 On Generalizing the Question 59 3.3 The Descriptive Scenario 61 3.4 The Normative Scenario 63 3.5 The Axiological Component 63 3.6 Developing an Objectives Tree 67 3.7 Validate 73 3.8 Iterate 74 References 75 4. The Index of Performance 76 4.1 Introduction 76 4.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance 78 4.3 Economic Criteria 81 4.4 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency 83 4.5 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria? 86 4.6 What is Wrong with the B-C Ratio? 90 4.7 Can IRR be Fixed? 92 4.8 Expected Monetary Value 94 4.9 Nonmonetary Performance Indices 96 References 99 5. Develop and Evaluate Alternative Candidate Solutions 101 5.1 Introduction 101 5.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity 101 5.3 Concepts in Creativity 103 5.4 Brainstorming 104 5.5 Brainwriting 107 5.6 Dynamic Confrontation 109 5.7 Zwicky's Morphological Box 110 5.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach 112 5.9 Computer Creativity 115 5.10 Trade Study Methods 116 5.11 Trade Study Example 120 References 127 6. The 10 Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 130 6.1 Introduction 130 6.2 Rule 1: There Always is a Client 131 6.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem 132 6.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity 133 6.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance 135 6.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision Maker 137 6.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget 139 6.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach 140 6.9 Rule 8: Non-users Must Be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations 141 6.10 Rule 9: The Universal Computer Model is a Fantasy 143 6.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One 143 References 145 Part Two: Casebook Cases in Systems Engineering 149 Introduction 149 The Case Study Method 151 What is a "Case"? 152 Implementing the Case Study Method 152 Chat Rooms and Polls 152 In-Class Group Activities 153 Case Study Assignments 153 Peer Review 154 The Case Studies 154 Using Case Studies to Build Teamwork and Communications Skills 154 Building the Systems Team 155 Tips on Managing the Team 156 How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation 157 How to Write a Report 162 Aligning Case Studies with the Ten Golden Rules of Systems Analysis 164 To Winnebago or to not Winnebago? 164 How can this Case be Used to Teach and Reinforce Systems Analysis? 169 A Word about the Cases 170 Validation of Learning: Evidence-Based Learning 170 Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam with Solutions 171 Sample Evaluation Instrument: Exam without Solutions 176 Case 1: Great Buys 183 Case 2: Surf's Up? 188 Case 3: Extended Engineering Education 189 Case 4: Systems Engineering Majors Proliferating 192 Case 5: Motor Carrier Safety and Compliance 193 Case 6: Is Getting There Half the Fun? 202 Case 7: Is Getting There Half the Fun? (Revisited) 206 Case 8: Which Camper Should We Choose? 210 Case 9: Seat Belt Issue 217 Case 10: Baseball Free Agent Draft--20xx 219 Case 11: For the Birds? 221 Case 12: Wal-Mart Crisis 222 Case 13: Ocean Cleanup 224 Case 14: BRAC 226 Case 15: Opportunity? 227 Case 16: Risky Business 228 Case 17: Corporate Headquarters 230 Case 18: The Ad Forecaster 231 Case 19: For the Birds (Revisited) 232 Case 20: Best MBA? 234 Case 21: Health Insurance? What Health Insurance? 235 Case 22: Social Media in Emergency Management 237 Case 23: Which Bridges to Repair? 241 Case 24: Going-to-the-Sun Road Rehabilitation Project 245 Case 25: HEV versus HOV? 256 Case 26: "Show Me the Money!" 259 Case 27: The Collections Subsidiary 261 Case 28: MNB One Credit Card Portfolio 266 Case 29: Select Collections 273 Case 30: To Distance or Not to Distance? Is That the Question? 278 Index 279