Deterrence under Uncertainty
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare
Published on 28. August 2025
Book
Paperback/Softback
288 pages
978-0-19-897612-7 (ISBN)
Description
For decades, films such as WarGames and The Terminator have warned that the combination of artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons might be a recipe for an apocalypse. Might these prophecies of doom become reality in coming decades?
Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.
Using insights from computer science, Deterrence under Uncertainty: Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Warfare evaluates how AI could make nuclear war winnable, and whether that possibility is likely. Detailed chapters explain how the landscape of nuclear deterrence is changing and debunks the myths of machine intelligence and nuclear weapons. This book gives a practitioner's perspective on how artificial intelligence (AI) and other emerging technologies could change the role of nuclear weapons in international relations.
Reviews / Votes
Some books are erudite and learned. Some books are entertaining and even funny. Some books offer a whole different perspective on a topic. Some books teach interesting things. Some books are well written. Deterrence Under Uncertainty by Edward Geist is exemplary in each of these categories. It is essential reading for a world awash with conversations about the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on armed conflict. * Herbert Lin, Arms Control Today * Geist, steeped in the history and craft of deception as a specialist in defence policy and security, thinks even the smartest agent can be made self destructively stupid by subterfuge. Fakery is so cheap and effective that Geist envisions a future where AI-driven "fog-of-war machines" create a world that favours neither side, but backs "those who seek to confound". * Simon Ings, New Scientist * Deterrence Under Uncertainty is an accessible exploration into the challenges and opportunities that arise when integrating AI with nuclear warfare. The concepts may be complex, but Geist makes them accessible to the average reader while offering more detailed explanations in the appendices. * Brock Sargent, H-Net Reviews *More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Oxford
United Kingdom
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Product notice
Paperback (trade)
Unsewn / adhesive bound
Dimensions
Height: 233 mm
Width: 153 mm
Thickness: 17 mm
Weight
496 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-19-897612-7 (9780198976127)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
08/2023
Oxford University Press
€108.94
Shipment within 15-20 days
Person
Edward Geist is a Senior Policy Researcher at the RAND Corporation, where his research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and particularly the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He is the author of Armageddon Insurance: Civil Defense in the United States and Soviet Union, 1945-1991 (University of North Carolina Press, 2019).
Content
Introduction: Artificial Intelligence and the Nuclear Dilemma
The Emerging Strategic Environment
From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities
No Place to Hide?
Recipe for a WOPR
Fog-of-War Machines
Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World
Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism
Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking
Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception
Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation
Index
The Emerging Strategic Environment
From Celluloid Nightmares to Silicon Realities
No Place to Hide?
Recipe for a WOPR
Fog-of-War Machines
Strategic Stability in a Deception-Dominant World
Conclusion: A Case for (Tempered) Optimism
Appendix A: The Mathematics of Tracking
Appendix B: A Bayesian Perspective on Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception
Appendix C: A Rudimentary Model of Ontological Confrontation
Index