An Assessment of Delivery Risks in Transportation Projects

A large number of uncertainties exist in the delivery of highway projects, and it is important to describe the extent so that budgeting and programming can be carried out in a manner that duly accounts for such uncertainties. The study investigates the sources of delivery variability (risk factors) that occur in the period between project proposed date and the letting date. Data on 366 highway projects were collected from the Indiana Department of Transportation Management Information Portal. Using statistical and econometric techniques, the data was analyzed to identify the potential risk factors and to determine the magnitude and direction of the influence of these risk factors. The study estimated the delivery variability inherent with each project type, providing a basis for rating highway projects in terms of their delivery risks and for incorporating probabilistic concepts in budgeting and programming.