The Only Three Questions That Count

Acknowledgments. Foreword. Preface. Who Am I to Tell You Something That Counts? Idiots and Professionals: Oh, but I Repeat Myself. Because Mr. Crafty, It's Not a Craft. It's All Latin to Me--Starting to Think like a Scientist. The Only Three Questions That Count. 1 Question One: What Do You Believe That Is Actually False? If You Knew It Was Wrong, You Wouldn't Believe It. The Mythological Correlation. Always Look at It Differently. When You Are Really, Really Wrong. 2 Question Two: What Can You Fathom That Others Find Unfathomable? Fathoming the Unfathomable. Ignore the Rock in the Bushes. Discounting the Media Machine and Advanced Fad Avoidance. The Shocking Truth about Yield Curves. What the Yield Curve Is Trying to Tell You. The Presidential Term Cycle. 3 Question Three: What the Heck Is My Brain Doing to Blindside Me Now? It's Not Your Fault--Blame Evolution. Cracking the Stone Age Code--Pride and Regret. The Great Humiliator's Favorite Tricks. Get Your Head Out of the Cave. 4 Capital Markets Technology. Building and Putting Capital Markets Technology into Practice. It's Good while It Lasts. Forecast with Accuracy, Not like a Professional. Better Living through Global Benchmarking. 5 When There's No There, There! Johns Hopkins, My Grampa, Life Lessons, and Pulling a Gertrude. In the Center Ring--Oil versus Stocks. Sell in May because the January Effect Will Dampen Your Santa Claus Rally Unless There Is a Witching Effect. 6 No, It's Just the Opposite. When You Are Wrong--Really, Really, Really Wrong. Multiplier Effects and the Heroin-Addicted Apple iPod Borrower. Let's Trade This Deficit for That One. The New Gold Standard. 7 Shocking but True. Supply and Demand. and That's It. Weak Dollar, Strong Dollar--What Does It Matter? 8 The Great Humiliator and Your Stone-Age Brain. That Predictable Market. Anatomy of a Bubble. Some Basic Bear Rules. What Causes a Bear Market?. 9 Putting It All Together. Stick with Your Strategy and Stick It to Him. Four Rules That Count. Finally! How to Pick Stocks That Only Win. When the Heck Do You Sell? Conclusion. Transformationalism. Appendix A: U.S. Equity Total Returns 1830 to 1925. Appendix B: S&P 500 Composite Returns. Appendix C: Simulated Technology Returns. Appendix D: Nasdaq Composite Returns. Appendix E: U.K. Stock Market Total Returns. Appendix F: U.K. Stock Market (FTSE All-Share) Total Returns. Appendix G: Germany Stock Market Returns. Appendix H: Germany Stock Market (DAX) Total Returns. Appendix I: Japan Stock Market Total Returns. Appendix J: Japan Stock Market (TOPIX) Total Returns. Appendix K: Fisher Investments Global Total Return Performance. Appendix L: Ten-Year History of the Forbes Report Card. Appendix M: The United Deficits: Data. Notes. Glossary. Index.