The Keys to Downing Street
Published on 22. July 2024
Book
Paperback/Softback
572 pages
978-1-916966-51-2 (ISBN)
Description
'The Keys to
Downing Street' is an utterly unique guide to British General Elections,
offering a refreshingly penetrating insight into how our democracy works.
The book is
both a history book, graphically bringing to life the political history of the
United Kingdom since 1945, and a guide to forecasting our political future. It
is an adaptation of Professor Alan Lichtman's brilliant American Presidential
forecasting method to the UK political system. Lichtman's 'Keys' have correctly
forecast every US Presidential election since 1984, and now, with his kind
permission, the wisdom of his methodology is now shedding light on the
political process this side of the pond.
Although the
unexpected return of Nigel Farage to the forefront of British politics during
the 2024 campaign came too late to be incorporated into the forecast for the
2024 election, the author did publicise an updated forecast in the days before
the poll. He predicted a Labour majority of 170 - they actually got one of 174!
Downing Street' is an utterly unique guide to British General Elections,
offering a refreshingly penetrating insight into how our democracy works.
The book is
both a history book, graphically bringing to life the political history of the
United Kingdom since 1945, and a guide to forecasting our political future. It
is an adaptation of Professor Alan Lichtman's brilliant American Presidential
forecasting method to the UK political system. Lichtman's 'Keys' have correctly
forecast every US Presidential election since 1984, and now, with his kind
permission, the wisdom of his methodology is now shedding light on the
political process this side of the pond.
Although the
unexpected return of Nigel Farage to the forefront of British politics during
the 2024 campaign came too late to be incorporated into the forecast for the
2024 election, the author did publicise an updated forecast in the days before
the poll. He predicted a Labour majority of 170 - they actually got one of 174!
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Canterbury
United Kingdom
Dimensions
Height: 198 mm
Width: 133 mm
Thickness: 43 mm
Weight
482 gr
ISBN-13
978-1-916966-51-2 (9781916966512)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Person
Tom Fisher
lives on the south coast of England and has been fascinated by British politics
for over thirty years. This is his first book on the subject, though he also
has a poetry collection coming out later in 2024. He is also an actor, and
his political and theatrical interests converged in 2022, when he played the
part of Boris Johnson in the COVID satire musical, 'Scotch Egg'.
lives on the south coast of England and has been fascinated by British politics
for over thirty years. This is his first book on the subject, though he also
has a poetry collection coming out later in 2024. He is also an actor, and
his political and theatrical interests converged in 2022, when he played the
part of Boris Johnson in the COVID satire musical, 'Scotch Egg'.
Content
Introduction 5
Chapter 1 13
the Keys 13
Chapter 2 58
1945-51 the Atlee years: socialism, de-colonisation, and
Cold War 58
Chapter 3: 89
1951-64: the long fifties: Conservative consolidation,
colonial crises and consumerism 89
Chapter 4 133
1964-1979: cultural revolution and national decline 133
Chapter 5: 1979-1997: 201
breaking the Post-War consensus: privatisation, war on
the unions, Argentina, and inflation. detonating the City 201
Chapter 6: 277
1997-2010 the New Labour years: reconciling Thatcherism
with social democracy and law & order with liberalism 277
Chapter 7: 341
2010-2024: Austerity Brexit COVID & Cost of Living
crisis 341
Introduction. 5
Chapter 1. 13
the Keys. 13
Chapter 2. 58
1945-51 the Atlee years: socialism, de-colonisation, and
Cold War 58
Chapter 3: 89
1951-64: the long fifties: Conservative consolidation,
colonial crises and consumerism 89
Chapter 4. 133
1964-1979: cultural revolution and national decline. 133
Chapter 5: 1979-1997: 201
breaking the Post-War consensus: privatisation, war on
the unions, Argentina, and inflation. detonating the City. 201
Chapter 6: 277
1997-2010 the New Labour years: reconciling Thatcherism
with social democracy and law & order with liberalism.. 277
Chapter 7: 341
2010-2024: Austerity Brexit COVID & Cost of Living
crisis 341
Chapter 8: questions and criticisms. 444
Why the keys don't work before 1945. 444
Chapter 9: counterfactuals. 452
Chapter 10: the lessons of the Keys. 514