Debt, Defaults, Disinflation & Demographics

Our prediction for global economies and global asset markets heading into the turbulent 2016-2017 period is not meant to be alarmist, or a "Dr Doom" style forecast, but a realistic assessment of the facts around debt, demographics and disinflation, and then an extrapolation from those factors to individual economies and markets. Rather than simply being doomsayers, we intend to pen another book in 2017-2018, to take advantage of the expected undervaluation of global assets and economies that will occur as a result of the next recessionary phase. As such, we like to be contrarians, in both boom and bear cycles. Our strong sense is that the bull cycle that started in 2009, now nearly 7 years old, is slowly maturing. The time to make major asset allocation changes, whether you are a small investor or a major pension fund investor, is now, in advance of the turmoil. We are clear that we expect shares, property and other growth assets to fall by 30-50% in the coming 2 years. Commodities will fall by more than that, and currencies will fall by a fraction less. Either way, some major opportunities are there for the picking. We strongly advise our readers to think outside of the square, challenge consensus, be contrarian, and think for themselves, logically and sensibly. If they do, that is the path not just to profit but importantly to capital preservation in the turbulent years that lie ahead of us.