Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy

Preface. Chapter 1: Aims, Background, Innovations and Presentation. Introduction. Background and Innovations. Presentation, Computer Code, Reading Strategy and Themes. Chapter 2: An Illustrative Application of MONASH: the Australian Motor Vehicle Industry from 1987 to 2016. Introduction. Historical and Decomposition Simulations: The Australian Motor Vehicle Industry from 1987 to 1994. Forecast Simulation: Prospects for the Australian Motor Vehicle Industry, 1998 to 2016. A Policy Simulation: The Effects of Reductions in the Tariff on Motor Vehicles. Policy Implications and Concluding Remarks. Appendix: The Derivation of the Formulas for Analysing the Difference Between GDP Paths in Alternative Simulations. Chapter 3: Mathematical Structure, Solution Algorithm and Computer Implementation: An Overview. Introduction. Overview of the Mathematical Structure of MONASH and Introduction to the Johansen/Euler Solution Method. The Input-Output Database and the Initial Solution. Evaluation of the Coefficients in Linear Systems such as (11.2) and (11.12). Overview of the GEMPACK Computations for the MONASH Model. Chapter 4: The Theory of the MONASH Model. Introduction. A Schematic Version of the MONASH Model. Results of Optimizing Decisions. Demands for Exports. Indirect Taxes. Definitions of Macro Variable: Interpretation of Divisia Indexes. Capital-Supply Functions, Rates of Return and Forward-Looking Expectations. Computational Strategy for Decomposition Simulations: Halfway Databases. Equations for Facilitating Historical and Forecast Simulations. Wage Adjustment and Welfare Measures in Policy Simulations. The Public-Sector Account, the Current Account and the Household Account. Appendix: CRESH Production Functions and CRETH Transformation Frontiers. Appendix: The Theory Underlying the Demand Equations for Traditional Exports. Appendix: The Levels representation of Price and Quantity Indexes in MONASH. Chapter 5: Developing the MONASH Closures. Introduction. The Decomposition closure (Third Column of Table 30.1). Developing the Historical Closure (Fourth Column of Table 30.1). Developing the Forecast Closure (Second Column of Table 30.1). Developing the Policy Closure (First Column of Table 30.1). MONASH Closures: Concluding Remarks. Chapter 6: Extensions, Progress and the Future. Introduction. Generating Results for Sub-National Regions. Generating Results for Detailed Occupations. Generating Output Results at a Sub-Input-Output Level. Generating Distributional Results: The Real Incomes of Many Types of Households. Quantifying Labour Market Adjustment Costs. Progress and the Future. References. Author Index. Subject Index.