Elements of Forecasting

Part 1 Getting started: introduction to forecasting - applications, methods, books, journals and software; six considerations basic to successful forecasting. Part 2 Building, using and evaluating forecasting models; statistical graphics for forecasting; modelling and forecasting trend; modelling and forecasting seasonality; characterizing cycles; modelling cycles - MA, AR and ARMA models; forecasting cycles; putting it all together - a forecasting model with trend, seasonal and cyclical components; unit roots, stochastic trends, ARIMA forecasting models, and smoothing; forecasting with regression models; evaluating and combining forecasts.