A Great Perhaps?
Colombia: Conflict and Convergence
Published on 15. October 2015
Book
Hardback
288 pages
978-1-84904-628-2 (ISBN)
Description
No country has managed as rapid and positive a turnaround in governance and security conditions this century than Colombia. In 1999, rebels of the FARC and ELN were, literally, at the gates of Bogota, Colombian known more for rapacious corruption, weak government, drug smuggling and criminality, a country synonymous with the antics of Pablo Escobar. Fifteen years later the guerrillas and the government are at the peace table in Havana, the economy has been a top performer in Latin America, and drugs are no longer the pervasive scourge they once were. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive examination of the different elements employed by government to combat the guerrillas, to win local and international political and military support, extend government authority to the 75 percent of the countryside where it was seldom felt, and to turn the Colombian economy into a success resembling the high-growth examples of Southeast Asia. How the Colombians did all of this is the subject of this book by four international specialists with untrammelled policy and practical expertise in counter-insurgency campaigns in Colombia and elsewhere, bringing a unique comparative perspective. Based on field-work in Colombia's regions, the study provides a history to the conflict, compares it to other historical and contemporary case-studies, examines the war from the perspective of the government and the guerrilla, delves into the development of special Colombian capabilities notably in intelligence and the use of airpower and special forces, and explains the economic dimension in terms both of historical exclusion and ongoing attempts at growth and inclusion. Finally, it concludes with an assessment on the country's prospects: can the combination of improved security, a flourishing economy and the peace process offer an opportunity to finally translate Colombia from, in Gabriel Garcia Marquez's words, 'a great perhaps' into something more permanent?
Reviews / Votes
This book not only explains the steps the Colombian government has taken in its search for peace and prosperity, but highlights the areas where international co-operation can extend this model and its success. ... I recommend it to all engaged in what I see as the responsibility of my generation: ending conflict, ensuring stability and promoting development. -- Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria 'A Great Perhaps?' explains the drivers behind the success of Colombia's recent transformation: better governance and improved security. By illustrating the importance of local ownership of both the problem and the solution, and the role to be played by foreign partners, this volume is a handbook for those countries intent on dealing with problems of insecurity and violence. -- General Richard Myers (rtd), former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Colombia is a valuable analogue for those African and other countries engaged in the struggle to extend governance while meeting the often linked threats of criminality and political insurgency. 'A Great Perhaps?' makes a unique contribution to explaining this hitherto relatively unknown campaign. It should be read widely, not least since it shows what is possible with dollops of leadership, application, vision, organisation and energy. -- President Uhuru Kenyatta, Kenya Colombia's dramatic improvement reminds one of the time, commitment and understanding required to fight insurgencies successfully--all things so many failed to understand properly in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan. 'A Great Perhaps?' highlights how such a turnaround has been achieved. It represents a serious contribution to the study of complex insurgencies and deserves to be widely read. -- Lord David Richards of Herstmonceux, former UK Chief of Defence Staff As we tackle development challenges in Africa there is much to learn from the experience of other regions. In explaining Colombia's progress this century, 'A Great Perhaps?' details a route for many others. We don't have to reinvent the policy wheel; we should read this book. -- Donald Kaberuka, President: African Development Bank To understand how centuries-old grievances can burst into violence, and the ways to resolve violent conflict while preserving the ethical foundation of democracy, I encourage everyone interested in guerrilla warfare in the modern world to read and savour this book, and to ponder its implications. -- Ambassador Juan-Carlos Pinzon, former Minister of Defence, Colombia Combining organised crime, the drugs industry, and an ideologically driven insurgency, Colombia provides an important window into the future of armed conflict. This volume provides a fascinating account of this war and explains how the government have brought the guerrillas to peace talks. An essential read. -- Professor Theo Farrell, Head of the Department of War Studies: King's College London Fifteen years ago, revolutionary guerrillas threatened at the gates of Bogota. Today they are at the peace table. 'A Great Perhaps?' explains the path of war and the route to peace. It should be read by all those interested in understanding and undoing complex insurgencies. -- General Ved Malik (rtd), former Chief of Army Staff, India This timely book clearly explains how with the right resources and strategies, a country can turn its security problems around. As set out in this insightful study, Colombia's experience provides useful lessons for those nations faced with insurgencies: a country that in the late 1990s was on the verge of a failed state was able to change for the better. -- Dr Anthony Bergin, Deputy Director: Australian Strategic Policy Institute From my own experience, Colombia's simultaneous transitions from war to peace and poverty to prosperity contain many good lessons for others. One especially important conclusion is that if Africa wants to successfully fight terrorism, it needs strong states and a shared commitment among national institutions to do so. 'A Great Perhaps?' captures perfectly the strategic lessons and tactical insights of this unsung though exceptionally noteworthy campaign. -- Pierre Buyoya, former president of Burundi; African Union special envoy to Mali Like Kenya, Colombia has faced a complex insurgency, fuelled by a combination of criminality, weak governance, social and economic exclusion, and porous borders. Colombia has managed these threats through strong leadership, international partnerships, buoyant economic growth, sound intelligence, and effective security forces. But more than anything, 'A Great Perhaps?' shows, refreshingly, that the difference between success and failure is down to local leadership. In this regard, for Kenya, the devolution of power and resources is key. -- Raila Odinga, leader of the opposition and former prime minister, Kenya Colombia shows, among many valuable lessons, how to have a good crisis. Africans, and others, should learn from this stand-out book in applying leadership and better policy to solve fundamental problems. -- Branko Brkic, Editor * The Daily Maverick *More details
Language
English
Place of publication
London
United Kingdom
Product notice
sewn/stitched
Cloth over boards
Dimensions
Height: 223 mm
Width: 149 mm
Thickness: 27 mm
Weight
445 gr
ISBN-13
978-1-84904-628-2 (9781849046282)
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Schweitzer Classification
Persons
Dickie Davis is an Associate of the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation and a retired Major General in the British Army. He served three tours in the Balkans and three in Afghanistan. David Kilcullen is a Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, studying insurgency and unconventional warfare. He has served in Colombia, Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia and is the author of, amongst other books, The Accidental Guerrilla. Greg Mills directs the Brenthurst Foundation. An adviser to several African presidents and to COMISAF in Afghanistan, he is the author of the best-selling Why Africa is Poor. David Spencer is Professor of Counterterrorism/ Counterinsurgency at the William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies. He has worked in various positions in support of Plan Colombia.