Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle (RLE: Business Cycles)
1st Edition
Published on 23. March 2015
Book
Hardback
150 pages
978-1-138-88798-5 (ISBN)
Description
Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach - the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.
More details
Series
Language
English
Place of publication
London
United Kingdom
Publishing group
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Target group
College/higher education
Professional and scholarly
General, Postgraduate, Professional, and Undergraduate
Dimensions
Height: 234 mm
Width: 156 mm
Weight
362 gr
ISBN-13
978-1-138-88798-5 (9781138887985)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
10/2016
1st Edition
Routledge
€76.94
Shipment within 10-20 days
E-Book
03/2015
Routledge
€64.49
Available for download
E-Book
03/2015
Routledge
€64.49
Available for download
Person
James W. Coons
Content
1. One-Year Treasury Note Yield: January to December 1989. 2. Selected Interest Rates: 1980-1989 3. The Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index: (CIRCI): 1953-1989 4. Interest Rates and the Business Cycle: 1946-1989 5. Cyclical Peaks and Troughs in the Composite Interest Rate Cycle Index (CIRCI): 1953-1989 6. Comparison of the Timing of Turning Points in the CIRCI and its Components: 1953-1988 7. The Credit Market 8. The Leading Inflation Index and the CIRCI: 1953 to 1989 9. The Case of the Missing Signal: January to December 1981 10. Conditional Probability Distributions Observed and Smoothed: August 1953 to December 1988 11a. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities: August 1953-January 1972 11b. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities: August 1971-August 1990 12. Sequential Filter Turning Point Probabilities Looking For a Trough: March 1989 to October 1993.