Prosperity in The Age of Decline

1 Results That No One Can Ignore: You Can Successfully Prepare for an Unknown Future 1 Where Not to Look 3 Confidence Indicators 3 Politics 8 Federal Reserve Board (The U.S. Version of Central Banks in Other Countries) 9 Newspapers and Media 15 ITR Economics Forecast Accuracy 16 2 The Status Quo Never Was: Seven Major Trends and Assumptions That Won't Last 21 Unstoppable Trends That Suddenly Stopped 22 Today's Trends That Won't Last Forever 31 Stimulus Spending Is Needed and Helpful 34 3 Preparing for Prosperity--Good News for 2015 and 2016: Do You Have Enough? 37 What Will 2015, 2016, and 2017 Look Like? 39 4 Depression Driver: Demographics 45 More People, More Older People 47 Show Me the Money 53 Medicare and Social Security 58 Managing to Win 61 Probable Winners 65 (Potential) Losers 66 5 AWorld That Doesn't Remember Inflation: New Management and Investment Thought Processes Required 69 Inflation's Impacts 77 Five Sources of Inflation 80 Managing to Win 95 Winners and Losers 101 Appendix to Chapter 5 102 6 Sovereign Debt--Harmless or Toxic? Not Just an American Problem 105 A Global Perspective 106 Summary 114 7 A Closer Look at the United States: The U.S. Problem Becomes the World's Problem 117 Where Are We Now? 117 Where Are We Going? 122 State and Local Governments 125 Spreading the Pain around the World 127 Summary 129 8 Business Growth Strategies and Tactics from Now through 2029 131 Monthly Moving Totals (MMTs) 132 Calculating Rate-of-Change 132 Use the Metrics 133 9 Offense and Defense: Strategies for the Upside of the Business Cycle 141 Offense and Defense 141 Conflicting Messages 142 Don't Delay 143 Phase A Management Objectives 144 Let the Good Times Roll 147 Summary 151 10 Playing Defense to Win: Enhancing Profits Even as the Economy Deteriorates 153 Management Objectives 155 The Rules Are Changing 167 Summary 168 11 Great Opportunities within the Stock Market: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know 169 Energy Distribution 170 Printed Electronics 171 Mexico 172 Water Conservation and Distribution 173 Health Care 174 Vocational Education 176 3-D Printing 176 Housing 177 Security 177 Natural Resources 178 Food 179 Entertainment 180 12 Investing Based on Age and Trend 181 Some Commonalities 181 Different Markets--Different Times 185 How Old Are You? 192 13 How to Spot the Top (Before the Great Depression) 201 14 What the Next Generation Needs to Know: Six Things the Next Generation Must Do 209 What Owners and Managers Must Do 209 Six Things Our Kids (and Businesses) Must Do 211 15 Is There Hope? 215 What Can Stave Off the Great Depression of 2030? 215 A Different View of the 1930s 218 A Different Future 218 Summary 219 Bibliography 221 Index 223