Judgment in Managerial Decision Making

Chapter 1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making The Anatomy of Decisions System 1 and System 2 Thinking The Bounds of Human Attention and Rationality Introduction to Judgmental Heuristics An Outline of Things to Come Chapter 2 Overconfidence The Mother of All Biases Overprecision Overestimation Overplacement Let's Hear it for Well-Calibrated Decision Making Chapter 3 Common Biases Biases Emanating from the Availability Heuristic Biases Emanating from the Representativeness Heuristic Biases Emanating from the Confirmation Heuristic Integration and Commentary Chapter 4 Bounded Awareness Inattentional Blindness Change Blindness Focalism and the Focusing Illusion Bounded Awareness in Groups Bounded Awareness in Strategic Settings Discussion Chapter 5 Framing and the Reversal of Preferences Framing and the Irrationality of the Sum of Our Choices We Like Certainty, Even Pseudocertainty Framing and The Overselling of Insurance What's It Worth to You? The Value We Place on What We Own Mental Accounting Rebate/Bonus Framing Joint-versus-Separate Preference Reversals Conclusion and Integration Chapter 6 Motivational and Emotional Influences on Decision Making When Emotion and Cognition Collide Self-Serving Reasoning Emotional Influences on Decision Making Summary Chapter 7 The Escalation of Commitment The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm The Competitive Escalation Paradigm Why Does Escalation Occur? Integration Chapter 8 Fairness and Ethics in Decision Making Perceptions of Fairness When We Resist "Unfair" Ultimatums When We are Concerned about the Outcomes of Others Why do Fairness Judgments Matter? Bounded Ethicality Overclaiming Credit In-Group Favoritism Implicit Attitudes Indirectly Unethical Behavior When Values Seem Sacred The Psychology of Conflicts of Interest Conclusion Chapter 9 Common Investment Mistakes The Psychology of Poor Investment Decisions Active Trading Action Steps Chapter 10 Making Rational Decisions in Negotiations A Decision-Analytic Approach to Negotiations Claiming Value in Negotiation Creating Value in Negotiation The Tools of Value Creation Summary and Critique Chapter 11 Negotiator Cognition The Mythical Fixed Pie of Negotiation The Framing of Negotiator Judgment Escalation of Conflict Overestimating Your Value in Negotiation Self-Serving Biases in Negotiation Anchoring in Negotiation Conclusions Chapter 12 Improving Decision Making Strategy 1: Use Decision-Analysis Tools Strategy 2: Acquire Expertise Strategy 3: Debias Your Judgment Strategy 4: Reason Analogically Strategy 5: Take an Outsider's View Strategy 6: Understand Biases in Others Strategy 7: Nudge Wiser and More Ethical Decisions Conclusion References Index