The Politics of Energy Forecasting

This book examines the process of model-building and forecasting with particular reference to energy. It concentrates on the last 20 years which have seen a multiplication of modelling methodologies and forecasting exercises and in which the models have become increasingly complex and the forecasts more and more long-term. It uses a set of country case studies from Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK, and the USA to illustrate the many forces which shape energy models and forecasts. It also makes an analysis of the ambitious IIASA world energy model. The authors show that all modellers and forecasters have to proceed on the basis of certain assumptions which are influenced by scientific procedures, ideological bias, economic interests and political requirements. They point out that the decisions which are reached often support specific partisan interests and can be highly controversial. Advanced courses on energy, corporate planning departments, economics departments, international agencies and policy makers may find this book of interest.