
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
Bilal M. Ayyub(Author)
CRC Press
1st Edition
Published on 27. June 2001
Book
Hardback
324 pages
978-0-8493-1087-4 (ISBN)
Description
Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.
Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.
Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Bosa Roca
United States
Publishing group
Taylor & Francis Inc
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Professional and Professional Practice & Development
Illustrations
75 s/w Abbildungen, 5 s/w Photographien bzw. Rasterbilder, 62 s/w Tabellen
62 Tables, black and white; 5 Halftones, black and white; 75 Illustrations, black and white
Dimensions
Height: 240 mm
Width: 161 mm
Thickness: 22 mm
Weight
658 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-8493-1087-4 (9780849310874)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions

Bilal M. Ayyub
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
E-Book
06/2001
CRC Press
€225.99
Available for download

Bilal M. Ayyub
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
E-Book
06/2001
1st Edition
CRC Press
€225.99
Available for download
Person
Bilal M. Ayyub
Content
Knowledge and Ignorance. Information-Based System Definition. Experts, Opinions, and Elicitation Methods. Expressing and Modeling Expert Opinions. Consensus and Aggregating Expert Opinions. Guidance on Expert-Opinion Elicitation. Applications of Expert-Opinion Elicitation.