Uncertainty in Strategic Decision Making
Description
Knight (1921) defines uncertainty as an informational market failure that, while being detrimental to most existing businesses, presents possible profitable opportunities for others. This book builds upon that classic work by providing an analysis of the alternative approaches to strategic decision-making under such uncertainty. It covers what uncertainty is, why it is important, and what connections it has to business and related fields, culminating in a new and comprehensive typology and a valuable guide for how to appropriately address various types of uncertainties, even under AI.
It clarifies the current terminological and categorical confusion about 'unknowns' while complementing the mathematical, probability-based approaches that treat uncertainty as 'knowable' (i.e., as risk). It corrects the mistaken approaches that treat 'unknowables' as 'shapeable' or 'discoverable'. This book widens the perspective for viewing uncertainty, in terms of its impacts across humanity, byoffering a shrewder understanding of what roles uncertainties play in human activity. It will appeal to academics across business, economics, philosophy, and other disciplines looking for approaches to apply, test, and hone for dealing with decision-making under uncertainty.
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Person
Richard J. Arend
is the L.L. Bean/ Lee Surace Chair in Strategic Management at the University of Southern Maine, USA. He specializes in strategic decision-making under uncertainty and in the critical assessments of the current theories of strategy and of entrepreneurship. He has authored two previous books - one on building better theory and one on wicked entrepreneurship.
Content
Chapter 1. Overview of this Book on Strategic Decision-Making under Uncertainty.- Chapter 2. Confusion over Uncertainty in Decision-Making.- Chapter 3. Definitions of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making).- Chapter 4. Sources of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making).- Chapter 5. Span of Effects of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making).- Chapter 6. Negative Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making).-Chapter 7. Positive Effects of Uncertainty (on Decision-Making).- Chapter 8. Optimal Uncertainty (in Decision-Making).- Chapter 9. Measures of Uncertainty (in Decision-Making).- Chapter 10. Multi-Dimensionality of Uncertainty.- Chapter 11. Uncertainty's Connections to Entrepreneurship .- Chapter 12. Uncertainty's Connections to Strategy .- Chapter 13. Uncertainty's Connections to Creativity, Art & Music .- Chapter 14. Uncertainty's Connections to Spirituality/ Religion .- Chapter 15. Uncertainty's Connections to Curiosity, Neurobiology & Evolution .- Chapter 16. Past Failures to Engage with Uncertainty.- Chapter 17. A New Typology of Uncertainty (for Decision-Making).- Chapter 18. Best Treatments & Approaches to Uncertainty Types (in Decision-Making).- Chapter 19. Conclusions of Analysis.- Chapter 20. Supplement on the Impact of Artificial Intelligence