
Bayesian Entrepreneurship
MIT Press
Will be published approx. on 14. April 2026
Book
Hardback
372 pages
978-0-262-05215-3 (ISBN)
Description
A novel framework for how entrepreneurs can use Bayesian reasoning to make decisions.
This edited volume introduces and explores the concept of Bayesian entrepreneurship, a novel framework for understanding entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty. It brings together contributions from leading scholars to examine how entrepreneurs form beliefs about opportunities, learn through experimentation, and make strategic decisions.
The Bayesian approach emphasizes the critical interaction between an entrepreneur’s prior beliefs and their capacity for learning and experimentation to update those beliefs. This dynamic process allows entrepreneurs to formulate and test theories about value creation and capture, attract resources and capabilities, and implement effective entrepreneurial strategies. The volume is organized around four key themes:
Bayesian Entrepreneurship offers both theoretical contributions advancing our understanding of entrepreneurial decision-making and practical insights for entrepreneurs and educators.
This edited volume introduces and explores the concept of Bayesian entrepreneurship, a novel framework for understanding entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty. It brings together contributions from leading scholars to examine how entrepreneurs form beliefs about opportunities, learn through experimentation, and make strategic decisions.
The Bayesian approach emphasizes the critical interaction between an entrepreneur’s prior beliefs and their capacity for learning and experimentation to update those beliefs. This dynamic process allows entrepreneurs to formulate and test theories about value creation and capture, attract resources and capabilities, and implement effective entrepreneurial strategies. The volume is organized around four key themes:
- the foundations and distinguishing features of Bayesian entrepreneurship
- how entrepreneurs form and update prior beliefs in entrepreneurial decision-making
- the role of experimentation and learning in entrepreneurial strategy
- applications to entrepreneurship education and practice
Bayesian Entrepreneurship offers both theoretical contributions advancing our understanding of entrepreneurial decision-making and practical insights for entrepreneurs and educators.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Cambridge (Massachusetts)
United States
Publishing group
MIT Press Ltd
Illustrations
32
Dimensions
Height: 210 mm
Width: 152 mm
Thickness: 30 mm
Weight
567 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-262-05215-3 (9780262052153)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions

Ajay Agrawal | Arnaldo Camuffo | Alfonso Gambardella
Bayesian Entrepreneurship
E-Book
04/2026
MIT Press
€118.99
Available for download
Persons
edited by Ajay Agrawal, Arnaldo Camuffo, Alfonso Gambardella, Joshua Gans, Erin L. Scott, and Scott Stern
Content
Foreword ii
Preface xiii
I WHAT IS BAYESIAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP? 1
1 The Foundations of Bayesian Entrepreneurship 2
2 Homo Entrepreneuricus 55
3 Knightian Uncertainty and Bayesian Entrepreneurship 77
4 Bayesian Entrepreneurship: A User’s Perspective 100
5 Clueless, Biased, or Bayesian Machines? 107
II PRIORS IN ENTREPRENEURIAL DECISION-MAKING 130
6 Causal Reasoning and the Scientific Entrepreneur 131
7 A Scientific Approach as Bayesian Learning 145
8 Priors, Experiments, Learning and Persuasion 158
III ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION 177
9 Learning from Data 178
10 A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning 197
11 Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur 211
IV ENTREPRENEURIAL PEDAGOGY AND PRACTICE 226
12 Learning, Commitment and Choice 227
13 What Helps Entrepreneurs Learn 243
14 Introducing Causal Reasoning into Entrepreneurial Pedagogy and Practice 265
Preface xiii
I WHAT IS BAYESIAN ENTREPRENEURSHIP? 1
1 The Foundations of Bayesian Entrepreneurship 2
2 Homo Entrepreneuricus 55
3 Knightian Uncertainty and Bayesian Entrepreneurship 77
4 Bayesian Entrepreneurship: A User’s Perspective 100
5 Clueless, Biased, or Bayesian Machines? 107
II PRIORS IN ENTREPRENEURIAL DECISION-MAKING 130
6 Causal Reasoning and the Scientific Entrepreneur 131
7 A Scientific Approach as Bayesian Learning 145
8 Priors, Experiments, Learning and Persuasion 158
III ENTREPRENEURIAL EXPERIMENTATION AND COMMUNICATION 177
9 Learning from Data 178
10 A Bayesian Perspective on Entrepreneurial Learning 197
11 Advice and the Bayesian Entrepreneur 211
IV ENTREPRENEURIAL PEDAGOGY AND PRACTICE 226
12 Learning, Commitment and Choice 227
13 What Helps Entrepreneurs Learn 243
14 Introducing Causal Reasoning into Entrepreneurial Pedagogy and Practice 265