Climate Extremes

Patterns and Mechanisms
 
 
American Geophysical Union (Verlag)
  • erschienen am 19. Juni 2017
  • |
  • 400 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-1-119-06804-4 (ISBN)
 
Although we are seeing more weather and climate extremes, individual extreme events are very diverse and generalization of trends is difficult. For example, mid-latitude and subtropical climate extremes such as heat waves, hurricanes and droughts have increased, and could have been caused by processes including arctic amplification, jet stream meandering, and tropical expansion. This volume documents various climate extreme events and associated changes that have been analyzed through diagnostics, modeling, and statistical approaches. The identification of patterns and mechanisms can aid the prediction of future extreme events.
Volume highlights include:
* Compilation of processes and mechanisms unique to individual weather and climate extreme events
* Discussion of climate model performance in terms of simulating high-impact weather and climate extremes
* Summary of various existing theories, including controversial ones, on how climate extremes will continue to become stronger and more frequent
Climate Extremes: Patterns and Mechanisms is a valuable resource for scientists and graduate students in the fields of geophysics, climate physics, natural hazards, and environmental science.
Read an interview with the editors to find out more:
https://eos.org/editors-vox/how-does-changing-climate-bring-more-extreme-events
1. Auflage
  • Englisch
  • New York
  • |
  • USA
John Wiley & Sons
  • 150,04 MB
978-1-119-06804-4 (9781119068044)
1119068045 (1119068045)
weitere Ausgaben werden ermittelt
S.-Y. Simon Wang, Utah State University, USA
Jin-Ho Yoon, Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea
Christopher C. Funk, United States Geological Survey, USA
Robert R. Gillies, Utah State University, US
Contributors vii
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xiii
Part I: Forcings of Climate Extremes
1 The Changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes
Jin?-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Song Yang, Houk Paek, and Mengyan Chen 3
2 Weather Extremes Linked to Interaction of the Arctic and Midlatitudes
Timo Vihma 39
3 Impact of Aerosols on Regional Changes in Climate Extremes
Jana Sillmann and Jinho Yoon 51
4 Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation, and Prolonged Weather Extremes in Boreal Summer
Dim Coumou, Kai Kornhuber, Jascha Lehmann, and Vladimir Petoukhov 61
5 Land Processes as the Forcing of Extremes: A Review
Min?-Hui Lo, Tzu?-Hsien Kuo, Hao?]Wei Wey, Chia?-Wei Lan, and Jen?-Ping Chen 75
Part II: Processes of Climate Extremes
6 Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate Extremes
Andrew D. King, Markus G. Donat, Ed Hawkins, and David J. Karoly 95
7 Recent Increases in Extreme Temperature Occurrence over Land
Scott J. Weaver, Arun Kumar, and Mingyue Chen 105
8 Why Future Shifts in Tropical Precipitation Will Likely Be Small: The Location of the Tropical Rain Belt and the Hemispheric Contrast of Energy Input to the Atmosphere
Aaron Donohoe and Aiko Voigt 115
9 Weather?]Climate Interactions and MJO Influences
Paul E. Roundy, Naoko Sakaeda, Kyle MacRitchie, and Lawrence Gloeckler 139
10 Recent Climate Extremes Associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode
Chris Funk and Andrew Hoell 165
11 Connections Between Heat Waves and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere Summer
Haiyan Teng and Grant Branstator 177
Part III: Regional Climate Extremes
12 North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves
Hailan Wang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster 197
13 The California Drought: Trends and Impacts
Shih?]Yu (Simon) Wang, Jinho Yoon, Robert R. Gillies, and Huang?-Hsiung Hsu 223
14 Observed Trends in US Tornado Frequency
Adam J. Clark 237
15 Mechanisms Explaining Recent Changes in Australian Climate Extremes
Sophie C. Lewis, David J. Karoly, Andrew D. King, Sarah E. Perkins, and Markus G. Donat 249
16 Unraveling East Africa's Climate Paradox
Bradfield Lyon and Nicolas Vigaud 265
17 A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest Asia
Andrew Hoell, Chris Funk, Mathew Barlow, and Forest Cannon 283
Part IV: Prediction of Climate Extremes
18 Extratropical Precursors of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Kathy V. Pegion and Christopher Selman 301
19 North Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Prediction: Underlying Science and an Evaluation of Statistical Models
Philip J. Klotzbach, Mark A. Saunders, Gerald D. Bell, and Eric S. Blake 315
20 Predicting Subseasonal Precipitation Variations Based on the Madden?]Julian Oscillation
Charles Jones 329
21 Prediction of Short?]Term Climate Extremes with a Multimodel Ensemble
Emily J. Becker 347
22 Toward Predicting US Tornadoes in the Late 21st Century
Adam J. Clark 361
Index 371

1
The Changing El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Associated Climate Extremes


Jin-Yi Yu1, Xin Wang2, Song Yang3,4, Houk Paek1, and Mengyan Chen2

1 Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, USA

2 State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China

3 School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, GuangZhou, Guangdong, China

4 Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies

ABSTRACT


The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most powerful climate phenomena that produce profound global impacts. Extensive research since the 1970s has resulted in a theoretical framework capable of explaining the observed properties and impacts of the ENSO and predictive models. However, during the most recent two decades there have been significant changes observed in the properties of ENSO that suggest revisions are required in the existing theoretical framework developed primarily for the canonical ENSO. The observed changes include a shift in the location of maximum sea surface temperature variability, an increased importance in the underlying dynamics of coupled ocean-atmosphere process in the subtropical Pacific, and different remote atmospheric teleconnection patterns that give rise to distinct climate extremes. The causes of these recent changes in ENSO are still a matter of debate but have been attributed to both global warming and natural climate variability involving interactions between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The possible future changes of ENSO properties have also been suggested using climate model projections.

1.1. INTRODUCTION


El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that can disrupt global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and exert profound impacts on global climate and socioeconomic activities. Since Bjerknes [1969] first recognized that ocean-atmosphere coupling was a fundamental characteristic of ENSO, a tremendous amount of effort has been expended by the research community to describe and understand the complex nature of this phenomenon and its underlying generation mechanisms. By the 1990s, the effort had led to the developments of successful theoretical frameworks that could explain the major features observed during ENSO events [Neelin et al., 1998] and useful forecast systems had been formulated to predict ENSO evolution with significant lead times of up to three seasons [Latif et al., 1998]. The typical ENSO impacts in various parts of the globe had also been extensively examined and documented. Through these efforts, it was also recognized that ENSO properties were not the same among events and could change from one decade to another. The diversity of ENSO characteristics attracted renewed interest at the beginning of the 21st century (see Capotondi et al. [2015], for a summary of these efforts), when it became obvious that the central location of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with ENSO appeared to be moving from the tropical eastern Pacific near the South American coast to locations near the International Dateline in the tropical central Pacific. Most of the El Niño events that have occurred so far in the 21st century developed primarily in the central Pacific [Lee and McPhaden, 2010; Yu et al., 2012b; Yu et al., 2015a; Yeh et al., 2015]. The fact that El Niño can sometimes occur in the eastern Pacific, sometimes in the central Pacific, and sometimes simultaneously in both portions of the Pacific has suggested that there may exist more than one type of ENSO, whose generation mechanisms and associated climate extremes may be different. The changes in ENSO observed during the recent decades have motivated the research community to revisit the conventional views of ENSO properties, dynamics, and global impacts.

1.2. CHANGES IN ENSO PROPERTIES


1.2.1. Flavors of ENSO


Slow or interdecadal changes have been observed in ENSO properties, including its intensity, period, and propagation direction [Gu and Philander, 1995; Wang and Wang, 1996; Torrence and Webster, 1999; An and Wang, 2000; Fedorov and Philander, 2000; Wang and An, 2001; Timmermann, 2003; An and Jin, 2004; and many others]. The amplitude of ENSO-associated SST anomalies, for example, was found to be stronger at the beginning and the end of the twentieth century, but weaker in between [Gu and Philander, 1995; Wang and Wang, 1996]. The propagation direction of ENSO SST anomalies has also alternated between eastward, westward, and standing during the past few decades [Wang and An, 2001; An and Jin, 2004]. Its recurrence frequency changed from about 2 to 3?yr before 1975 to a longer frequency of 4 to 6?yr afterward [An and Wang, 2000]. In recent decades, one of the most noticeable changes in ENSO properties has been the displacement of the central location of ENSO SST anomalies [Larkin and Harrison, 2005; Ashok et al., 2007; Kao and Yu, 2009; Kug et al., 2009]. ENSO is characterized by interannual SST variations in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific. In the canonical ENSO events portrayed by Rasmusson and Carpenter [1982], SST anomalies first occur near the South American coast and then spread westward along the equator. However, ENSO events characterized by SST anomalies primarily in the equatorial central Pacific, and which spread eastward [An and Wang, 2000] also occur. Trenberth and Stepaniak [2001] recognized that the different SST evolutions of ENSO events cannot be fully described with a single index such as the Niño-3 (5°S-5°N, 90°-150°W) SST index. They defined a trans-Niño index, which measures the SST gradient along the equator by taking the difference between normalized Niño-1?+?2 (10°S-0°, 80°-90°W) and Niño-4 (5°S-5°N, 160°E-150°W) SST indices to help discriminate the different SST evolutions. Their study implies that different types of ENSO may be better identified by contrasting SST anomalies between the eastern and central Pacific. A similar conclusion was reached by Yu and Kao [2007] in their analysis of the persistence barrier of Niño indices in the central-to-eastern Pacific (i.e., Niño-1?+?2, Niño-3, Niño-3.4 (5°S-5°N, 120°-170°W), and Niño-4 SST indices). They found different decadal changes between the indices in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. They also found that the decadal changes in ocean heat content variations along the equatorial Pacific coincide with the decadal changes in the SST persistence barriers in the eastern Pacific, but not with those in the central Pacific. This finding led them to suggest that there are two types of ENSO: An Eastern-Pacific (EP) type located primarily in the tropical eastern Pacific and whose generation mechanism involves equatorial thermocline variations, and a Central-Pacific (CP) type located in the central tropical Pacific and whose generation is less sensitive to thermocline variations. A detailed comparison of these two types of ENSO was presented in Kao and Yu [2009], where they identified the spatial structure, temporal evolution, and underlying dynamics of these two types of events. While this "two types of ENSO" point of view is adopted in this chapter, it should be noted that debate remains (for example, see the discussion in Capotondi et al. [2015]) as to whether these two types are really dynamically distinct.

Examples of the EP and CP types of ENSO are shown in Figure 1.1, which displays the SST anomaly patterns during the peak phase of the 1977-1978 and 1997-1998 El Niño events. During the 1997-1998 El Niño (Fig. 1.1a), SST anomalies were mostly located in the eastern part of the tropical Pacific, extending from the South American coast around 80°W to 160°W, covering the Niño-1?+?2 and Niño-3 regions. During the 1977-1978 El Niño (Fig. 1.1b), SST anomalies were mostly concentrated in the equatorial central Pacific from 160°E to 120°W, covering the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions. Some early studies had already noticed the existence of a group of ENSO events that developed in the central Pacific around the International Dateline [e.g., Weare et al., 1976; Fu et al., 1986; Hoerling and Kumar, 2002; Larkin and Harrison, 2005a]. Larkin and Harrison [2005a] suggested that this group of ENSO events can produce different impacts on the US climate from conventional ENSO events and referred to them as the Dateline El Niño. Ashok et al. [2007] also focused on this group of ENSO events and termed them El Niño Modoki. Furthermore, Wang and Wang [2013] classified El Niño Modoki into two subtypes: El Niño Modoki I and El Niño Modoki II because they show significantly different impacts on rainfall in southern China and typhoon landfall activity. These two subtypes of El Niño...

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