The Phantom Pattern Problem

The Mirage of Big Data
 
 
Oxford University Press
  • erschienen am 25. September 2020
  • |
  • 256 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe-DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-0-19-260969-4 (ISBN)
 
Pattern-recognition prowess served our ancestors well, but today we are confronted by a deluge of data that is far more abstract, complicated, and difficult to interpret. The number of possible patterns that can be identified relative to the number that are genuinely useful has grown exponentially - which means that the chances that a discovered pattern is useful is rapidly approaching zero. Patterns in data are often used as evidence, but how can you tell if that evidence is worth believing? We are hard-wired to notice patterns and to think that the patterns we notice are meaningful. Streaks, clusters, and correlations are the norm, not the exception. Our challenge is to overcome our inherited inclination to think that all patterns are significant, as in this age of Big Data patterns are inevitable and usually coincidental. Through countless examples, The Phantom Pattern Problem is an engaging read that helps us avoid being duped by data, tricked into worthless investing strategies, or scared out of getting vaccinations.
  • Englisch
  • Oxford
  • |
  • Großbritannien
  • 1,19 MB
978-0-19-260969-4 (9780192609694)
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Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College. Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and was an Assistant Professor there for seven years. He has won two teaching awards and written more than eighty academic papers and thirteen books. Jay Cordes is a data scientist who enjoys tackling challenging problems, including how to guide future data scientists away from the common pitfalls he saw in the corporate world. He earned a Math degree from Pomona College and more recently graduated from UC Berkeley's Master of Information and Data Science (MIDS) program.
  • Cover
  • The Phantom Pattern Problem
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • TABLE OF CONTENTS
  • INTRODUCTION: Surely You Jest
  • CHAPTER 1: Survival of the Sweaty Pattern Processors
  • Survival of the Sweatiest
  • Survival of the Smartest
  • Pattern Recognition
  • Childish Patterns
  • The Apple Didn't Fall Far From the Tree
  • Patterns Everywhere, Until They Aren't
  • Recognizing Faces
  • Deceptive Patterns
  • The Luckiest Baby Alive
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 2: Predicting What is Predictable
  • What is Causation?
  • Yellow Pebbles
  • Prediction
  • Measure Twice, Cut Once
  • Limeys Cured of Scurvy by Limes
  • The Gold Standard
  • A/B Tests
  • Post Hoc Reasoning
  • Good to So-So
  • Scuttlebutt
  • If You Love Your Job
  • Clever Tickers
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 3: Duped and Deceived
  • Malaria
  • Superstitions
  • Imagining Patterns
  • Memorable M Patterns
  • You Don't Split
  • If You Believe, It Will Happen
  • Monday the 6th
  • "47" Everywhere
  • Numerology
  • Cosmic Coincidences
  • It's All About Us
  • Bode's Law
  • Moore's Law
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 4: Fooled Again and Again
  • Flippers and Fakers
  • Drunken Steps
  • Warm Hands
  • Are You Picking on Me?
  • Slow Down and Shuffle
  • Settlers
  • Cancer Clusters
  • Smaller is Better (and Worse)
  • Standardized Tests
  • Violent Crimes
  • We're Number 1 (or Maybe Number 2)
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 5: The Paradox of Big Data
  • Introduction
  • Data Mining
  • Out-of-Sample Data
  • Crowding Out
  • Multiple Regression
  • Know Nothings
  • Immigrant Mothers and Their Daughters
  • Getting Over It
  • Predicting an Exchange Rate
  • Data Mining Trump's Tweets
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 6: Fruitless Searches
  • Google Trending the Stock Market
  • Looking to the Stars
  • Google Trending Bitcoin
  • Predicting Unemployment
  • The Chinese Housing Bubble
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 7: The Reproducibility Crisis
  • Sloppy Science
  • You Are What Your Mother Eats
  • Zombie Studies
  • The Reproducibility Crisis: A Case Study
  • Count Them Up
  • The Charney Report
  • Skepticism vs Denialism
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 8: Who Stepped in It?
  • New Coke
  • Telling Bill Clinton the Truth
  • Stock Market Secrets
  • The Best Month to Buy Stocks
  • Portfolio Optimization
  • A System of the Month
  • Rolling Dice for Dollars
  • Where's the Beef?
  • Shopping for Dollars
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • CHAPTER 9: Seeing Things for What They Are
  • The Peter Principle
  • Google
  • Controlled Experiments
  • Natural Experiments
  • Dr. Spock's Overlooked Women
  • Theory Before Data
  • Exuberant Expectations
  • How to Avoid Being Misled by Phantom Patterns
  • EPILOGUE: All About That Bayes
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Medical Diagnoses
  • Bayes' Rule in the Courtroom
  • Patterns and Posteriors
  • BIBLIOGRAPHY
  • INDEX

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