Operational Safety Economics

A Practical Approach focused on the Chemical and Process Industries
 
 
John Wiley & Sons Inc (Verlag)
  • erschienen am 3. August 2016
  • |
  • 336 Seiten
 
E-Book | PDF mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-1-118-87153-9 (ISBN)
 
Describes how to make economic decisions regading safety in the chemical and process industries
* Covers both technical risk assessment and economic aspects of safety decision-making
* Suitable for both academic researchers and practitioners in industry
* Addresses cost-benefit analysis for safety investments
weitere Ausgaben werden ermittelt
1 - Cover [Seite 1]
2 - Title Page [Seite 5]
3 - Copyright [Seite 6]
4 - Contents [Seite 7]
5 - Preface [Seite 13]
6 - Disclaimer [Seite 16]
7 - Acknowledgements [Seite 17]
8 - List of Acronyms [Seite 19]
9 - Chapter 1 Introduction [Seite 21]
9.1 - 1.1 The "Why" of Operational Safety [Seite 21]
9.2 - 1.2 Back to the Future: the Economics of Operational Safety [Seite 23]
9.3 - 1.3 Difficulties in Operational Safety Economics [Seite 24]
9.4 - 1.4 The Field of Operational Safety within the Profitability of an Organization [Seite 25]
9.5 - 1.5 Conclusions [Seite 26]
9.6 - References [Seite 27]
10 - Chapter 2 Operational Risk, Operational Safety, and Economics [Seite 28]
10.1 - 2.1 Defining the Concept of Operational Risk [Seite 28]
10.2 - 2.2 Dealing with Operational Risks [Seite 30]
10.3 - 2.3 Types of Operational Risk [Seite 31]
10.4 - 2.4 The Importance of Operational Safety Economics for a Company [Seite 35]
10.5 - 2.5 Balancing between Productivity and Safety [Seite 38]
10.6 - 2.6 The Safety Equilibrium Situation or "HRO Safety" [Seite 39]
10.6.1 - 2.6.1 HRO Principle 1: Targeted at Disturbances [Seite 40]
10.6.2 - 2.6.2 HRO Principle 2: Reluctant for Simplification [Seite 41]
10.6.3 - 2.6.3 HRO Principle 3: Sensitive toward Implementation [Seite 41]
10.6.4 - 2.6.4 HRO Principle 4: Devoted to Resiliency [Seite 41]
10.6.5 - 2.6.5 HRO Principle 5: Respectful for Expertise [Seite 42]
10.7 - 2.7 The Egg Aggregated Model (TEAM) of Safety Culture [Seite 42]
10.8 - 2.8 Safety Futures [Seite 44]
10.9 - 2.9 The Controversy of Economic Analyses [Seite 45]
10.10 - 2.10 Scientific Requirements for Adequate Economic Assessment Techniques [Seite 46]
10.11 - 2.11 Four Categories of Data [Seite 47]
10.12 - 2.12 Improving Decision-making Processes for Investing in Safety [Seite 48]
10.13 - 2.13 Conclusions [Seite 49]
10.14 - References [Seite 50]
11 - Chapter 3 Economic Foundations [Seite 51]
11.1 - 3.1 Macroeconomics and Microeconomics [Seite 51]
11.2 - 3.2 Safety Demand and Long-term Average Cost of Production [Seite 52]
11.2.1 - 3.2.1 Safety Demand [Seite 52]
11.2.2 - 3.2.2 Long-term Average Cost of Production and Safety [Seite 53]
11.3 - 3.3 Safety Value Function [Seite 55]
11.4 - 3.4 Expected Value Theory, Value at Risk, and Safety Attitude [Seite 57]
11.4.1 - 3.4.1 Expected Value Theory [Seite 57]
11.4.2 - 3.4.2 Value at Risk [Seite 58]
11.4.3 - 3.4.3 Safety Attitude [Seite 59]
11.5 - 3.5 Safety Utilities [Seite 60]
11.5.1 - 3.5.1 Safety Utility Functions [Seite 60]
11.5.2 - 3.5.2 Expected Utility and Certainty Equivalent [Seite 61]
11.6 - 3.6 Measuring Safety Utility Functions [Seite 62]
11.7 - 3.7 Preferences of Safety Management - Safety Indifference Curves [Seite 63]
11.8 - 3.8 Measuring Safety Indifference Curves [Seite 65]
11.8.1 - 3.8.1 Questionnaire-based Type I Safety Indifference Curves [Seite 65]
11.8.2 - 3.8.2 Problems with Determining an Indifference Curve [Seite 68]
11.8.3 - 3.8.3 Time Trade-off-based Safety Utilities for Type II Safety Indifference Curves [Seite 68]
11.9 - 3.9 Budget Constraint and n-Dimensional Maximization Problem Formulation [Seite 70]
11.10 - 3.10 Determining Optimal Safety Management Preferences within the Budget Constraint for a Two-dimensional Problem [Seite 72]
11.11 - 3.11 Conclusions [Seite 74]
11.12 - References [Seite 74]
12 - Chapter 4 Operational Safety Decision-making and Economics [Seite 75]
12.1 - 4.1 Economic Theories and Safety Decisions [Seite 75]
12.1.1 - 4.1.1 Introduction [Seite 75]
12.1.2 - 4.1.2 Expected Utility Theory [Seite 76]
12.1.3 - 4.1.3 Prospect Theory [Seite 76]
12.1.4 - 4.1.4 Bayesian Decision Theory [Seite 80]
12.1.5 - 4.1.5 Risk and Uncertainty [Seite 80]
12.1.6 - 4.1.6 Making a Choice Out of a Set of Options [Seite 82]
12.1.7 - 4.1.7 Impact of Affect and Emotion in the Process of Making a Choice between Alternatives [Seite 84]
12.1.8 - 4.1.8 Influence of Regret and Disappointment on Decision-making [Seite 84]
12.1.9 - 4.1.9 Impact of Intuition on Decision-making [Seite 85]
12.1.10 - 4.1.10 Other Influences while Making Decisions [Seite 86]
12.2 - 4.2 Making Decisions to Deal with Operational Safety [Seite 86]
12.2.1 - 4.2.1 Introduction [Seite 86]
12.2.2 - 4.2.2 Risk Treatment Option 1: Risk Reduction [Seite 87]
12.2.3 - 4.2.3 Risk Treatment Option 2: Risk Acceptance [Seite 89]
12.2.4 - 4.2.4 Risk Treatment [Seite 90]
12.2.5 - 4.2.5 The "Human Aspect" of Making a Choice between Risk Treatment Alternatives [Seite 94]
12.3 - 4.3 Safety Investment Decision-making - a Question of Costs and Benefits [Seite 96]
12.3.1 - 4.3.1 Costs and Hypothetical Benefits [Seite 96]
12.3.2 - 4.3.2 Prevention Benefits [Seite 98]
12.3.3 - 4.3.3 Prevention Costs [Seite 98]
12.4 - 4.4 The Degree of Safety and the Minimum Overall Cost Point [Seite 99]
12.5 - 4.5 The Type I and Type II Accident Pyramids [Seite 103]
12.6 - 4.6 Quick Calculation of Type I Accident Costs [Seite 105]
12.6.1 - 4.6.1 Accident Metrics [Seite 106]
12.6.2 - 4.6.2 A Quick Cost-estimation Approach for Type I Risks [Seite 107]
12.7 - 4.7 Quick Calculation of Type II Accident Costs [Seite 108]
12.7.1 - 4.7.1 Introduction to a Study on Type II Event Decision-making [Seite 108]
12.7.2 - 4.7.2 Results of the Study on Type II Event Decision-making [Seite 110]
12.7.3 - 4.7.3 Results by Gender [Seite 112]
12.7.4 - 4.7.4 Rational and Intuitive Thinking Styles [Seite 112]
12.7.5 - 4.7.5 Conclusions of the Study on Type II Event Decision-making [Seite 114]
12.8 - 4.8 Costs and Benefits and the Different Types of Risk [Seite 115]
12.9 - 4.9 Marginal Safety Utility and Decision-making [Seite 117]
12.10 - 4.10 Risk Acceptability, Risk Criteria, and Risk Comparison-Moral Aspects and Value of (Un)safety and Value of Human Life [Seite 121]
12.10.1 - 4.10.1 Risk Acceptability [Seite 121]
12.10.2 - 4.10.2 Risk Criteria and Risk Comparison [Seite 124]
12.10.3 - 4.10.3 Economic Optimization [Seite 130]
12.10.4 - 4.10.4 Moral Aspects and Calculation of (Un)safety, Monetizing Risk and Value of Human Life [Seite 131]
12.11 - 4.11 Safety Investment Decision-making for the Different Types of Risk [Seite 143]
12.11.1 - 4.11.1 Safety Investment Decision-making in the Case of Type I Risks [Seite 143]
12.11.2 - 4.11.2 Safety Investment Decision-making for Type II Risks [Seite 146]
12.11.3 - 4.11.3 Calculation of the Disproportion Factor, taking Societal Acceptability of Risks into Account [Seite 150]
12.12 - 4.12 Conclusions [Seite 162]
12.13 - References [Seite 162]
13 - Chapter 5 Cost-Benefit Analysis [Seite 169]
13.1 - 5.1 An Introduction to Cost-Benefit Analysis [Seite 169]
13.2 - 5.2 Economic Concepts Related to Cost-Benefit Analyses [Seite 170]
13.2.1 - 5.2.1 Opportunity Cost [Seite 170]
13.2.2 - 5.2.2 Implicit Value of Safety [Seite 171]
13.2.3 - 5.2.3 Consistency and Uniformity of Safety Investment Decisions [Seite 172]
13.2.4 - 5.2.4 Decision Rule, Present Values, and Discount Rate [Seite 174]
13.2.5 - 5.2.5 Different Cost-Benefit Ratios [Seite 177]
13.3 - 5.3 Calculating Costs [Seite 178]
13.3.1 - 5.3.1 Safety Measures [Seite 178]
13.3.2 - 5.3.2 Costs of Safety Measures [Seite 178]
13.4 - 5.4 Calculating Benefits (Avoided Accident Costs) [Seite 195]
13.4.1 - 5.4.1 Distinction between Various Accident Costs [Seite 196]
13.4.2 - 5.4.2 Avoided Accident Costs [Seite 198]
13.4.3 - 5.4.3 Investment Analysis (Economic Concepts Related to Type I Risks) [Seite 220]
13.5 - 5.5 The Cost of Carrying Out Cost-Benefit Analyses [Seite 221]
13.6 - 5.6 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type I Safety Investments [Seite 222]
13.7 - 5.7 Cost-Benefit Analysis for Type II Safety Investments [Seite 222]
13.7.1 - 5.7.1 Introduction [Seite 222]
13.7.2 - 5.7.2 Quantitative Assessment Using the Disproportion Factor [Seite 224]
13.7.3 - 5.7.3 Decision Model [Seite 226]
13.7.4 - 5.7.4 Simulation on Illustrative Case Studies [Seite 228]
13.7.5 - 5.7.5 Recommendations with Regard to Using the DF0 [Seite 236]
13.8 - 5.8 Advantages and Disadvantages of Analyses Based on Costs and Benefits [Seite 236]
13.9 - 5.9 Conclusions [Seite 237]
13.10 - References [Seite 237]
14 - Chapter 6 Cost-effectiveness Analysis [Seite 239]
14.1 - 6.1 An Introduction to Cost-effectiveness Analysis [Seite 239]
14.2 - 6.2 Cost-effectiveness Ratio [Seite 240]
14.3 - 6.3 Cost-effectiveness Analysis Using Constraints [Seite 242]
14.4 - 6.4 User-friendly Approach for Cost-effectiveness Analysis under Budget Constraint [Seite 243]
14.4.1 - 6.4.1 Input Information [Seite 243]
14.4.2 - 6.4.2 Approach Cost-effectiveness Working Procedure and Illustrative Example [Seite 245]
14.4.3 - 6.4.3 Illustrative Example of the Cost-effectiveness Analysis with Safety Budget Constraint [Seite 246]
14.4.4 - 6.4.4 Refinements of the Cost-effectiveness Approach [Seite 247]
14.5 - 6.5 Cost-effectiveness Calculation Often Used in Industry [Seite 252]
14.6 - 6.6 Cost-Utility Analysis [Seite 253]
14.7 - 6.7 Conclusions [Seite 253]
14.8 - References [Seite 253]
15 - Chapter 7 Beyond the State-of the Art of Operational Safety Economics: Bayesian Decision Theory [Seite 255]
15.1 - 7.1 Introduction [Seite 255]
15.2 - 7.2 Bayesian Decision Theory [Seite 257]
15.2.1 - 7.2.1 The Criterion of Choice as a Degree of Freedom [Seite 257]
15.2.2 - 7.2.2 The Proposed Criterion of Choice [Seite 260]
15.2.3 - 7.2.3 The Algorithmic Steps of the Bayesian Decision Theory [Seite 261]
15.3 - 7.3 The Allais Paradox [Seite 261]
15.3.1 - 7.3.1 The Choosing of Option 1B [Seite 262]
15.3.2 - 7.3.2 The Choosing of Option 2A [Seite 263]
15.3.3 - 7.3.3 How to Resolve an Allais Paradox [Seite 265]
15.4 - 7.4 The Ellsberg Paradox [Seite 265]
15.5 - 7.5 The Difference in Riskiness Between Type I and Type II Events [Seite 267]
15.5.1 - 7.5.1 Outcome Probability Distributions with Equal Expectation Values [Seite 267]
15.5.2 - 7.5.2 The Risk of the Type I Event [Seite 268]
15.5.3 - 7.5.3 The Risk of the Type II Event [Seite 269]
15.5.4 - 7.5.4 Comparing the Risks of the Type I and Type II Events [Seite 270]
15.6 - 7.6 Discussion [Seite 271]
15.7 - 7.7 Conclusions [Seite 273]
15.8 - References [Seite 273]
16 - Chapter 8 Making State-of-the-Art Economic Thinking Part of Safety Decision-making [Seite 274]
16.1 - 8.1 The Decision-making Process for an Economic Analysis [Seite 274]
16.2 - 8.2 Application of Cost-Benefit Analysis to Type I Risks [Seite 276]
16.2.1 - 8.2.1 Safety Investment Option 1 [Seite 277]
16.2.2 - 8.2.2 Safety Investment Option 2 [Seite 279]
16.3 - 8.3 Decision Analysis Tree Approach [Seite 282]
16.3.1 - 8.3.1 Scenario Thinking Approach [Seite 283]
16.3.2 - 8.3.2 Cost Variable Approach [Seite 283]
16.4 - 8.4 Safety Value Function Approach [Seite 287]
16.5 - 8.5 Multi-attribute Utility Approach [Seite 290]
16.6 - 8.6 The Borda Algorithm Approach [Seite 292]
16.7 - 8.7 Bayesian Networks in Relation to Operational Safety Economics [Seite 294]
16.7.1 - 8.7.1 Constructing a Bayesian Network [Seite 294]
16.7.2 - 8.7.2 Modeling a Bayesian Network to Analyze Safety Investment Decisions [Seite 296]
16.8 - 8.8 Limited Memory Influence Diagram (LIMID) Approach [Seite 300]
16.9 - 8.9 Monte Carlo Simulation for Operational Safety Economics [Seite 304]
16.10 - 8.10 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) in Relation to Operational Safety Economics [Seite 306]
16.11 - 8.11 Game Theory Considerations in Relation to Operational Safety Economics [Seite 312]
16.11.1 - 8.11.1 An Introduction to Game Theory [Seite 312]
16.11.2 - 8.11.2 The Prisoner's Dilemma Game [Seite 314]
16.11.3 - 8.11.3 The Prisoner's Dilemma Game Involving Many Players [Seite 315]
16.12 - 8.12 Proving the Usefulness of a Disproportion Factor (DF) for Type II Risks: an Illustrative (Toy) Problem [Seite 317]
16.12.1 - 8.12.1 The Problem of Choice [Seite 317]
16.12.2 - 8.12.2 The Expected Outcome Theory Solution [Seite 318]
16.12.3 - 8.12.3 The Expected Utility Solution [Seite 319]
16.12.4 - 8.12.4 The Bayesian Decision Theory Solution [Seite 320]
16.12.5 - 8.12.5 A Numerical Example Comparing Expected Outcome Theory, Expected Utility Theory, and Bayesian Decision Theory [Seite 322]
16.12.6 - 8.12.6 Discussion of the Illustrative (Toy) Problem - Link with the Disproportion Factor [Seite 324]
16.13 - 8.13 Decision Process for Carrying Out an Economic Analysis with Respect to Operational Safety [Seite 325]
16.14 - 8.14 Conclusions [Seite 328]
16.15 - References [Seite 329]
17 - Chapter 9 General Conclusions [Seite 330]
18 - Index [Seite 333]
19 - EULA [Seite 339]

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