. Introduction to Decision Making
. Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets
. Group Mechanics
. Heuristics and Programmed Decisions
. Probability and Base Rate Neglect
Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.
The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including:
. Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory
. Probability and Expected Value
. Bayes Theorem
. Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods
. Game Theory
. Prediction Markets
. Brainstorming and Groupthink
. Black Swan Events.
Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.