How Do Leaders Make Decisions?

Evidence from the East and West, Part B
 
 
Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development; Emerald Publishing Limited
  • erschienen am 2. Dezember 2019
  • |
  • 208 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-1-83867-813-5 (ISBN)
 
Understanding how leaders make foreign policy andnational security decisionsisofparamount importance for the policy community and academia. Yet on their own,neither rational nor cognitive schools of decision-making analysis offer totallyconvincing results, and in any case, rigorous decision analysis methodologiesare rarely, if ever, applied to the decisions of world leaders. How Do Leaders MakeDecisions?: Evidence from the East and West, Part B,the second in a two-part volume covering a total of ten world leaders, fills thisgap by using the Applied Decision Analysis (ADA) method to explore how figuressuch as Putin, Erdogan, Khaled Mashal, Mao, and Saddam Hussein make or made majordecisions of international significance.By analysing the decisions made by keypolitical figures around the world, past and present, the chapters gatheredhere shed light on how they are reached and what policy implications they havefor their own and other nations. The analyses are based on traditional andcontemporary theories of foreign policy decision making, including, but notlimited to, the rational actor model, the cybernetic theory of decision,poliheuristic theory, and various decision rules, including the elimination-by-aspectrule and the lexicographic decision rule. Cumulatively, what these chaptersuncover is that foreign and nationalsecurity policies can be best explained by tracing the cognitive processleaders go through in formulating and arriving at their decisions.For itsgroundbreakingly rigorous methodology and its unprecedented scope, this bookand its companion book are essential reading for students, scholars, andpolicymakers alike.
  • Englisch
  • Bingley
  • |
  • Großbritannien
Emerald Publishing Limited
  • 2,27 MB
978-1-83867-813-5 (9781838678135)
weitere Ausgaben werden ermittelt
  • Front Cover
  • How Do Leaders Makedecisions? Evidencefrom the East Andwest, Part B
  • Copyright Page
  • Contents
  • About the Editors
  • List of Contributors
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgments
  • Introduction: How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Evidence from the East
  • Applied Decision Analysis
  • Summary of Chapters
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • The Decision Calculus of Putin
  • Introduction
  • The Research Question
  • Importance of the Research
  • Prior Research - Who Is Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin?
  • Hypotheses
  • Method
  • Basis of the Research
  • Method of Analysis
  • Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin's Decision Dimensions
  • The Political Dimension - Survival (Weight: 10)
  • The Economic Dimension - Improving the Russian Economy (Weight: 9)
  • The Security Dimension - Ensuring National Security (Weight: 9)
  • The Ideological Dimension - Expanding Russia's Geopolitical Role in the World - Promoting the Concept of "The Russian World...
  • The International Dimension - Competition with the United States (Weight: 7)
  • Analysis of 12 Decisions Made by Vladimir Putin on the Basis of Matrices
  • Decision 1 - The Supply of S-300 Air Defense Systems to Iran
  • Review
  • Matrix 1 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 2 - Selling Aircraft and Satellite Equipment to Iran
  • Review
  • Matrix 2 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 3 - Active Mmilitary Assistance to the Assad Regime in Syria
  • Review
  • Matrix 3 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 4 - Arms Sales to Egypt
  • Review
  • Matrix 4 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 5 - Setting Up an Intelligence Center against ISIS with Iran, Iraq, and the Syrian Government
  • Review
  • Matrix 5 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 6 - Bomb Targets Belonging to ISIS
  • Review
  • Matrix 6 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 7 - Not to Take Military Action against ISIS on the Ground, but to Assist Various Ground Forces
  • Review
  • Matrix 7 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 8 - Send a Telegram to the Arab League Summit, in which Putin Expressed Support for an Independent Palestinian Sta...
  • Review
  • Matrix 8 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 9 - Creation of Dialogue with Saudi Arabia for the Sale of Weapons, Nuclear Reactors, and an End to the Conflict i...
  • Review
  • Matrix 9 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 10 - Non-condemnation of Israel in the UN for Operation Protective Edge in 2014
  • Review
  • Matrix 10 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 11 - Conduct Naval Exercises with China in the Mediterranean Sea
  • Review
  • Matrix 11 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Decision 12 - Signing the Agreement with Jordan for the Establishment of Two Nuclear Power Plants
  • Background
  • Matrix 12 in Appendices
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • Summary and Analysis of the Findings
  • Conclusions
  • Recommendations for Further Research
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • Appendices
  • The Decision Calculus of Erdogan: A Poliheuristic Perspective
  • Introduction
  • Research Question
  • Does Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Decision Calculus Match the Poliheuristic Decision Model?
  • Importance of the Research
  • Turkish Foreign Policy - Objectives and Background
  • Civil War in Syria
  • Erdogan's Personality and Leadership Style, and Their Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy
  • Hypothesis
  • Research Method
  • Analysis Dimensions and Weight
  • Research Results
  • March 2011 - The Outbreak of Violence: Provision of Time and Support to Assad to Carry Out Democratic Reforms in Response t...
  • November 2011 - Toward Economic Coercion: Threats of Economic Sanctions and Calling for Assad to Step Down
  • Beginning of 2012 - Threatens Syria by Imposing a No-fly Zone Coupled with a Military Response
  • April 2012 - Threatens to Invoke the Self-Defense Clause in the NATO Treaty and Calls the UN to Act Against Syria
  • June 2012 - A Moderate Military Response and Public Call to the US and Britain to Intervene in Syria
  • November 2012 - Contacting Regional Parties and Players Affecting the Region to Create a Dialogue and Bring about a Solutio...
  • Conclusions
  • Bibliography
  • The Decision Calculus of Khaled Mashal
  • Khaled Mashal and Hamas
  • The Decision to Sign the Cairo Agreement in May 2011
  • The Decision to Cut the Financial Dependency on Iran at the End of 2011
  • The Decision to Accept the Final Ceasefire in Operation Protective Edge in August 2014
  • The Decision to Permit Limited Cooperation with Islamic State in Sinai 2015
  • The Decision to Publish Hamas' New Policy Document in May 2017
  • Conclusion
  • Notes
  • References
  • The Decision Calculus of Mao
  • Introduction
  • Research Question
  • Importance of the Research
  • Mao Zedong - Personality Traits
  • Research Design
  • Hypotheses
  • Research Methods
  • Establishment and Basis of the Research
  • Dimensions of Mao's Decisions
  • Background
  • Decision 1 - Joining the Korean War in 1950
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Taken
  • Decision 2 - Incorporation of Tibet into China in 1951
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Made
  • Decision 3 - Attack the Taiwanese Islands in 1954
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Analysis of the Decision Rule
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Made
  • Decision 4 - The Sino-Indian War in 1962
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Made
  • Decision 5 - Limited Intervention in the Vietnam War in 1964
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Made
  • Decision 6 - Incidents on the Sino-Soviet Border in 1969
  • Background
  • Alternatives
  • Decision-rule Analysis
  • After the Fact - On the Decision Made
  • Summary and Analysis of the Findings
  • Conclusions
  • Recommendations for Further Research
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • Appendix
  • Saddam Hussein's Decision Calculus
  • Introduction
  • Study Objective and Rationale
  • Style of Leadership
  • Saddam's Personality
  • Data Sources
  • Saddam Hussein's ADA
  • Decision to go to War with Iran
  • Stage 1 - Identify the Alternatives
  • Alternatives
  • Stage 2?+?3 - Identify the Different Dimensions and Their Weights
  • Political Dimension
  • Military Dimension
  • Arab World
  • United States (US)
  • Israel
  • Economy
  • Iran
  • Stage 4?+?5 - Analyze the Implications and Ratings
  • Uncovering the Decision Rule
  • Invasion of Kuwait
  • Alternatives
  • What Decision Rule was Used?
  • Saddam Scud Attacks against Israel
  • Alternatives
  • What Decision Rule was Used?
  • Conclusions
  • Notes
  • Bibliography
  • Conclusion
  • Further Reading
  • Index

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