Climate Change

Observed Impacts on Planet Earth
 
 
Elsevier (Verlag)
  • 2. Auflage
  • |
  • erschienen am 19. September 2015
  • |
  • 632 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
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978-0-444-63535-8 (ISBN)
 

Earth's climate is always changing. As the debate over the Earth's climate has grown, the term 'climate change' has come to refer primarily to changes we've seen over recent years and those that are predicted to be coming, mainly as a result of human behavior. Climate Change: Observed Impacts on Planet Earth, Second Edition, serves as a broad, accessible guide to the science behind this often political and heated debate by providing scientific detail and evidence in language that is clear to both the climatologist and the non-specialist.

The book contains 35 chapters on all scientific aspects of climate change, written by the world's authority of each particular subject. It collects the latest information on all of these topics in one volume. In this way, readers can make connections between the various topics covered in the book, leading to new ways of solving problems and looking at related issues. The book also contains major references and details for further research and understanding on all issues related to climate change, giving a clear indication of a looming crisis in global warming and climate change.


  • Provides an up-to-date account of the current understanding of climate change and global warming
  • Includes 23 updated chapters and 12 new chapters
  • Includes coverage on modeling climate change, geological history of climate change, and on engineering aspects of climate change
  • Written by the world's leading experts on the issues related to climate change
  • Englisch
  • Oxford
  • |
  • Niederlande
Elsevier Science
  • 19,06 MB
978-0-444-63535-8 (9780444635358)
0444635351 (0444635351)
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  • Front Cover
  • Climate Change Observed Impacts on Planet Earth
  • Copyright
  • Contents
  • List of Contributors
  • Preface
  • PART 1 - A GEOLOGICAL HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1 - CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH EARTH'S HISTORY
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CLIMATE MODELS
  • 3. LONG-TERM CLIMATE TRENDS
  • 4. EARLY CLIMATE HISTORY
  • 5. PHANEROZOIC GLACIATIONS
  • 6. THE MESOZOIC - EARLY CENOZOIC GREENHOUSE
  • 7. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENOZOIC ICEHOUSE
  • 8. ASTRONOMICAL MODULATION OF CLIMATE
  • 9. MILANKOVITCH CYCLICITY IN QUATERNARY (PLEISTOCENE) CLIMATE HISTORY
  • 10. QUATERNARY SUB-MILANKOVITCH CYCLICITY
  • 11. THE HOLOCENE
  • 12. CLIMATE OF THE ANTHROPOCENE
  • 13. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • PART 2 - INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2 - GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. BASIC DATA AVAILABILITY
  • 3. ANALYSES OF LAND SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES
  • 4. ANALYSES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
  • 5. GLOBAL CHANGES
  • 6. UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION
  • 7. CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREMES AND VARIABILITY
  • 8. FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTIONS
  • 9. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 3 - ARCTIC SEA ICE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. OBSERVED CHANGES IN THE STATE OF ARCTIC SEA ICE
  • 2.1 SEA ICE EXTENT AND CONCENTRATION
  • 2.2 SEA ICE THICKNESS AND VOLUME
  • 2.3 SEA ICE DRIFT
  • 2.4 SEA ICE AGE
  • 2.5 LENGTH OF MELT SEASON
  • 3. CLASSIFYING AND COMPREHENDING THE OBSERVED CHANGES
  • 4. CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 4 - ANTARCTIC SEA ICE CHANGES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. WHY ANTARCTIC ICE IS DIFFERENT
  • 3. SNOW ON THE ICE
  • 4. THE ANNUAL ICE CYCLE AND ITS CHANGES
  • 5. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE ICE?
  • 6. RESPONSE OF THE ANTARCTIC TO CHANGES ELSEWHERE
  • REFERENCES
  • 5 - LAND ICE: INDICATOR AND INTEGRATOR OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 1.1 GEOGRAPHICAL CONTEXT
  • 1.2 ANATOMY OF AN ICE SHEET
  • 1.3 LAND ICE AND SEA LEVEL
  • 2. MASS BALANCE OF GLACIERS AND ICE SHEETS
  • 2.1 SURFACE MASS BALANCE
  • 2.2 ICE DYNAMICS
  • 3. LONG-TERM BEHAVIOUR
  • 3.1 GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL CYCLES
  • 3.2 HOLOCENE VARIABILITY
  • 4. OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CHANGES
  • 4.1 GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS
  • 4.2 ICE SHEETS
  • 5. CONCLUDING REMARKS
  • REFERENCES
  • 6 - POLEWARD EXPANSION OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
  • 3. EVIDENCE FOR CIRCULATION CHANGE
  • 3.1 THE WIDENING TROPICS
  • 3.2 INDICATORS OF TROPICAL WIDTH
  • 3.3 THE DECREASING INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION
  • 3.4 EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION CHANGE
  • 3.5 MAGNITUDE OF PAST AND FUTURE TRENDS
  • 4. CAUSE FOR CIRCULATION CHANGE
  • 4.1 DIRECT VERSUS INDIRECT EFFECTS
  • 4.2 NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
  • 4.3 TROPICAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
  • 4.4 EXTRATROPICAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
  • 4.5 STRUCTURE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS
  • 4.6 ARCTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGE
  • 4.7 GREENHOUSE GAS INCREASES
  • 4.8 DEPLETION AND RECOVERY OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE
  • 4.9 SOLAR VARIABILITY
  • 4.10 NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL
  • 4.11 LINEARITY OF THE RESPONSE
  • 5. EMERGING DYNAMICAL MECHANISMS
  • 5.1 RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CIRCULATION, CLOUDS, AND RADIATION
  • 5.2 STRATOSPHERIC LINKAGES
  • 5.3 TROPOPAUSE HEIGHTS
  • 5.4 STATIC STABILITY
  • 5.5 TROPICAL PUSH
  • 5.6 EXTRATROPICAL PULL
  • 6. SUMMARY, OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS, AND CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 7 - WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES IN THE TROPICS AND MID-LATITUDES
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. OBSERVED CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
  • 3. OBSERVED CHANGES IN EXTRATROPICAL PATTERNS
  • 4. CHANGES IN TROPICAL PATTERNS
  • 4.1 EL NIÑO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
  • 4.2 TROPICAL CYCLONES
  • 4.3 MONSOONS
  • 5. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 8 - BIRD ECOLOGY
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. INDICATORS OF CHANGE
  • 2.1 RANGE
  • 2.1.1 Size and Position of Breeding Ranges
  • 2.1.2 Ranges During the Nonbreeding Season
  • 2.2 MIGRATION
  • 2.2.1 Timing of Migration to the Breeding Grounds
  • 2.2.2 Timing of Migration from the Breeding Grounds
  • 2.2.3 Migration Routes and Wintering Areas
  • 2.2.4 Partial Migration
  • 2.2.5 Eruptions
  • 2.3 REPRODUCTION
  • 2.3.1 Onset of Breeding Period
  • 2.3.2 Length of Breeding Period
  • 2.3.3 Breeding Success
  • 2.3.4 Sexual Selection
  • 2.4 MORPHOLOGY
  • 2.5 DISEASES
  • 3. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 9 - MAMMAL ECOLOGY
  • 1. INTRODUCTION: HOW DOES CLIMATE IMPACT MAMMALS?
  • 2. CLIMATE IMPACTS SCALE FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL, DAILY TO GEOLOGICAL
  • 3. DEMONSTRATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MAMMALS
  • 3.1 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL METABOLISM
  • 3.2 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL MORPHOLOGY
  • 3.3 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL PHENOLOGY
  • 3.4 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL POPULATION DYNAMICS
  • 3.5 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL RANGE LIMITS
  • 3.6 CLIMATE IMPACTS ON MAMMAL COMMUNITIES AND DIVERSITY
  • 4. CONCLUSION: LINKING TIME AND SPACE IN MAMMAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE
  • REFERENCES
  • 10 - INSECT COMMUNITIES
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. RANGE CHANGES
  • 2.1 RANGE CHANGES - LIFE HISTORY
  • 2.2 RANGE CHANGES - ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND RESOURCE AVAILABILITY
  • 2.3 RANGE CHANGES AND ADAPTATION
  • 3. CHANGES IN PHENOLOGY
  • 3.1 PHENOLOGY CHANGES - MISMATCHES
  • 3.2 PHENOLOGY CHANGES - GENERATIONS AND ABUNDANCE
  • 3.3 PHENOLOGY AND ADAPTATION
  • 4. PHYSIOLOGY
  • 5. RESPONSES TO OTHER CLIMACTIC VARIABLES
  • 5.1 RESPONSES TO PRECIPITATION
  • 5.2 RESPONSES TO CO2 LEVELS
  • 5.3 INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF WARMING, PRECIPITATION, AND CO2
  • 6. INSECT COMMUNITIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 7. CONCLUSION
  • REFERENCES
  • 11 - SEA LIFE (PELAGIC ECOSYSTEMS)
  • 1. PELAGIC AND PLANKTONIC ECOSYSTEMS
  • 1.1 SENSITIVITY OF PELAGIC AND PLANKTONIC ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 1.2 MARINE AND TERRESTRIAL BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES TO CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 1.3 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND OTHER ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCES ON PELAGIC AND PLANKTONIC ECOSYSTEMS
  • 2. OBSERVED IMPACTS ON PELAGIC AND PLANKTONIC ECOSYSTEMS
  • 2.1 BIOGEOGRAPHICAL CHANGES AND NORTHWARD SHIFTS
  • 2.2 LIFE CYCLE EVENTS AND PELAGIC PHENOLOGY
  • 2.3 PLANKTON ABUNDANCE AND PELAGIC PRODUCTIVITY
  • 2.4 PELAGIC BIODIVERSITY AND INVASIVE SPECIES
  • 3. CONCLUSION AND SUMMARY OF KEY INDICATORS
  • REFERENCES
  • 12 - CHANGES IN CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. TROPICAL CORAL REEF ECOSYSTEMS
  • 3. THE ASSOCIATED FAUNA OF CORAL REEFS
  • 4. CONCLUSION
  • REFERENCES
  • 13 - MARINE BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE OCEANS
  • 3. EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE BIODIVERSITY
  • 3.1 LOCAL SCALE
  • 3.2 REGIONAL SCALE
  • 3.3 GLOBAL SCALE
  • 3.4 OTHER FACTORS RELATING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 4. CUMULATIVE IMPACTS AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 5. BIODIVERSITY AS INSURANCE AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
  • 6. CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 14 - INTERTIDAL INDICATORS OF CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
  • 2.1 USING LONG-TERM DATA SETS TO DETECT CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2.2 BIOGEOGRAPHIC RESPONSES OF INTERTIDAL BIOTA
  • 2.2.1 Europe
  • 2.2.2 Arctic
  • 2.2.3 United States
  • 2.2.4 Southern Hemisphere
  • 2.2.5 South Africa
  • 2.2.6 Asia
  • 2.3 EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
  • 2.4 INTERACTIONS
  • 3. MECHANISMS AND MICROCLIMATE
  • 3.1 PHYSIOLOGY
  • 3.2 REPRODUCTION AND RECRUITMENT
  • 3.3 MODELLING
  • 4. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 4.1 OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
  • 4.2 COASTAL ZONE DEVELOPMENT
  • 4.3 CLIMATE CHANGE AND NON-NATIVE SPECIES
  • 5. CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 15 - PLANT ECOLOGY
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CHANGES IN PHENOLOGY
  • 3. CHANGES IN DISTRIBUTION
  • 4. COMMUNITY COMPOSITION
  • 5. PLANT GROWTH
  • 6. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 16 - RISING SEA LEVELS
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. IS SEA LEVEL RISING?
  • 3. WHY IS SEA LEVEL RISING?
  • 4. ARE CONTEMPORARY RATES OF SEA LEVEL RISE UNUSUAL?
  • 5. CONCLUSION
  • REFERENCES
  • 17 - OCEAN CURRENT CHANGES
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. THE VARIABLE OCEAN
  • 3. OCEANOGRAPHER'S TOOLS
  • 4. THE ATLANTIC MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION
  • 4.1 MOTIVATION
  • 4.2 CIRCULATION, DRIVING MECHANISMS
  • 4.3 THE AMOC'S ROLE IN HEAT TRANSPORT, OCEANIC UPTAKE OF CARBON AND VENTILATION OF THE DEEP OCEAN
  • 4.4 SIMULTANEOUS CHANGES OF THE AMOC AND ATLANTIC CLIMATE IN THE PAST
  • 4.5 WHY SHOULD THE AMOC CHANGE AS PART OF ONGOING CLIMATE CHANGE?
  • 4.6 CAN WE DETECT CHANGES IN THE AMOC? IS THE AMOC CHANGING ALREADY?
  • 5. CONCLUSION
  • REFERENCES
  • 18 - OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 1.1 CARBONATE CHEMISTRY
  • 1.2 COMBINED IMPACTS OF OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2. EVIDENCE FROM OBSERVATIONS
  • 2.1 EVIDENCE FROM GEOLOGICAL AND ICE CORE RECORDS
  • 2.2 EVIDENCE FROM LONG-TERM OCEANOGRAPHIC TIME SERIES
  • 2.3 EVIDENCE FROM OCEANOGRAPHIC CRUISES
  • 3. MODEL PREDICTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGE
  • 4. IMPACTS
  • 4.1 PAST OBSERVATIONS
  • 4.2 CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
  • 4.3 EXPERIMENTAL OBSERVATIONS
  • 4.4 COMBINED IMPACTS
  • 5. BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING AND FEEDBACK TO CLIMATE
  • 5.1 CHANGES TO THE OCEAN CARBON CYCLE
  • 5.2 CHANGES TO OCEAN NUTRIENT CYCLES
  • 5.3 CHANGES TO FLUX OF OTHER CLIMATE REACTIVE GASES FROM THE OCEAN
  • 6. ADAPTATION, RECOVERY AND MITIGATION
  • 6.1 ADAPTATION
  • 6.2 RECOVERY
  • 6.3 MITIGATION
  • 7. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 19 - LICHENS
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. PREDICTED EFFECTS
  • 3. OBSERVED EFFECTS
  • 4. UNCERTAIN EFFECTS
  • 5. HABITATS WITH VULNERABLE LICHENS
  • 5.1 LOW LEVEL ISLANDS WITH ENDEMIC LICHENS
  • 5.2 EXTENDED REGIONS WITH SIMILAR CLIMATE BUT LOCAL ENDEMISM
  • 5.3 THE (ANT-)ARCTIC AND TUNDRA REGIONS
  • 5.4 HIGH GROUND IN THE TROPICS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 20 - COASTLINE DEGRADATION AS AN INDICATOR OF GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS
  • 3. CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL/RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE
  • 4. INCREASING HUMAN UTILIZATION OF THE COASTAL ZONE
  • 5. CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA LEVEL RISE AND RESULTING IMPACTS
  • 6. RECENT IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE
  • 7. GLOBAL WARMING AND COASTS AT LATITUDINAL EXTREMES
  • 8. THE CHALLENGE TO UNDERSTAND CONTEMPORARY IMPACTS
  • 9. CONCLUDING REMARKS
  • REFERENCES
  • 21 - PLANT PATHOGENS AS INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND PLANT DISEASE
  • 3. EVIDENCE THAT SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTS PLANT DISEASE IN EXPERIMENTS
  • 4. EVIDENCE THAT PLANT DISEASE PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • PART 3 - MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 22 - STATISTICAL MODELLING OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. BAYESIAN MODELLING
  • 2.1 BAYESIAN MODELLING IN THEORY
  • 2.2 BAYESIAN STATISTICS IN PRACTICE
  • 3. MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 3.1 SPECIFYING THE ENSEMBLE
  • 3.1.1 The Ensemble of Simulators
  • 3.1.2 The Ensemble of Physical Parameters
  • 3.1.3 The Ensemble of Parameterizations
  • 3.1.4 The Ensemble of Climate Forcings
  • 3.1.5 Missing Physics
  • 3.2 RUNNING SIMULATIONS
  • 3.3 RECORDING THE SIMULATIONS
  • 3.4 ASSESSING THE SIMULATIONS
  • 4. MODELLING THE COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 5. CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 23 - A MODELLING PERSPECTIVE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. CLIMATE MODELS
  • 2.1 HIERARCHY OF CLIMATE MODELS
  • 2.1.1 Energy Balance Models
  • 2.1.2 Radiative-Convective Model
  • 2.1.3 Statistical-Dynamic Models
  • 2.1.4 Earth Models of Intermediates Complexity
  • 2.1.5 Global Circulation Models
  • 2.1.6 Regional Climate Models
  • 3. EVALUATION OF CLIMATE MODELS
  • 3.1 TECHNIQUES AND EXPERIMENTS FOR EVALUATING CLIMATE MODELS
  • 3.1.1 Isolating Processes
  • 3.1.2 Evaluating Model Components
  • 3.1.3 Evaluating Overall Model Results
  • 3.1.4 Evaluating Models Ensemble
  • 3.2 FACTORS INFLUENCING MODEL PERFORMANCE
  • 3.3 PAST CLIMATE SIMULATION
  • 3.3.1 Simulation of Climate Variables
  • 3.3.2 Simulation of Climate Phenomena
  • 3.3.3 Simulation of Extreme Events
  • 4. FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS
  • 4.1 DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
  • 4.2 PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE VARIABLES
  • 4.3 PROJECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE PHENOMENA
  • 4.4 PROJECTED CHANGES IN EXTREME EVENTS
  • 4.5 UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
  • 5. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • PART 4 - POSSIBLE ROLES IN CAUSING CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 24 - THE ROLE OF ATMOSPHERIC GASES
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. MYTHS, FACTS, LIES AND OPINIONS ABOUT THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
  • 3. ORIGIN OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT: 'PRIMARY' AND 'SECONDARY' EFFECTS
  • 4. THE PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY PROPERTIES OF GREENHOUSE GASES
  • 5. HAS ANYTHING CHANGED IN THE LAST DECADE?
  • 5.1 HAS THE SCIENCE CHANGED?
  • 5.2 HAVE PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES, ETC. CHANGED?
  • 5.3 WHAT ACTIONS HAVE BEEN TAKEN AT THE PRIVATE AND THE POLITICAL LEVEL?
  • 5.3.1 Easy to Implement and Solve
  • 5.3.2 Moderately Difficult to Implement
  • 5.3.3 Very Difficult to Solve
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 25 - THE VARIATION OF THE EARTH'S MOVEMENTS (ORBITAL, TILT AND PRECESSION)
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. ASTRONOMICAL PARAMETERS
  • 2.1 ECCENTRICITY
  • 2.2 PRECESSION AND OBLIQUITY
  • 2.3 INSOLATION
  • 3. ORBITAL-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 3.1 ICE AGES
  • 3.2 MONSOON STRENGTH
  • 3.3 PRE-PLEISTOCENE
  • 4. CONCLUSION
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • 26 - THE ROLE OF VOLCANIC ACTIVITY IN CLIMATE AND GLOBAL CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. AEROSOL LOADING, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND RADIATIVE EFFECT
  • 3. VOLCANOES AND CLIMATE
  • 3.1 TROPOSPHERIC COOLING AND STRATOSPHERIC WARMING
  • 3.2 EFFECT ON HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
  • 3.3 VOLCANIC EFFECT ON ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
  • 3.4 VOLCANIC IMPACT ON OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND SEA LEVEL
  • 3.5 STRENGTHENING THE OVERTURNING CIRCULATION
  • 3.6 VOLCANIC IMPACT ON SEA ICE
  • 3.7 EFFECT OF SMALL VOLCANOES, CLIMATE HIATUS AND GEOENGINEERING ANALOGUES
  • 4. SUMMARY
  • REFERENCES
  • 27 - ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS AND THEIR ROLE IN CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. THE LIFE CYCLE OF TROPOSPHERIC AEROSOLS
  • 3. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TROPOSPHERIC AEROSOLS
  • 4. AEROSOL-RADIATION INTERACTIONS
  • 5. AEROSOL-CLOUD INTERACTIONS
  • 6. THE NET RADIATIVE FORCING OF AEROSOLS
  • 7. THE ROLE OF AEROSOLS IN CLIMATE FEEDBACK MECHANISMS
  • 8. THE ROLE OF AEROSOLS IN POTENTIAL CLIMATE ENGINEERING SCHEMES
  • REFERENCES
  • 28 - CLIMATE CHANGE AND AGRICULTURE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 3. SOURCES OF EMISSIONS FROM AGRICULTURE
  • 3.1 LAND USE CONVERSION
  • 3.2 FUEL CONSUMPTION
  • 3.3 N2O EMISSIONS FROM FERTILIZERS AND MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
  • 3.3.1 Chemical Fertilizers
  • 3.3.2 Tillage Systems
  • 3.3.3 Rotations
  • 3.3.4 Cover Crops
  • 3.3.5 Soil Properties
  • 3.3.6 Organic Farming
  • 3.4 METHANE (CH4) EMISSION
  • 3.4.1 Wetlands
  • 3.4.2 Rice Cultivation
  • 3.4.3 Peatlands
  • 3.4.4 Livestock
  • 3.4.5 Permafrost
  • 3.4.6 CH4 Oxidation/Uptake by Soil
  • 4. ACCELERATED SOIL EROSION
  • 5. MITIGATION POTENTIAL OF AGRICULTURE
  • 5.1 SOIL MANAGEMENT
  • 5.2 CROP, ANIMAL MANAGEMENT
  • 5.3 LONG-TERM PERSISTENCE AND EFFECTIVENESS OF CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS
  • 5.4 AGRICULTURAL EMISSION AND DIET PREFERENCES
  • 6. CONCLUSIONS
  • LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 29 - WIDESPREAD SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION CHANGES AND THEIR EFFECTS: DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
  • 1. INTRODUCTION - SOLAR RADIATION BASICS
  • 2. SOLAR RADIATION ABOVE THE ATMOSPHERE
  • 2.1 TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE VARIATIONS
  • 2.2 EARTH'S ALBEDO AND NET SOLAR RADIATION ABOVE THE ATMOSPHERE
  • 3. SOLAR RADIATION BELOW THE ATMOSPHERE
  • 3.1 MEASUREMENT OF SURFACE RADIATION
  • 3.2 COMPARING GLOBAL RADIATION (EG) FROM DIFFERENT SITES
  • 3.3 ARCHIVES OF SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS
  • 4. TRENDS IN SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION, OR GLOBAL DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
  • 4.1 GLOBAL DIMMING REPORTS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY
  • 4.2 FROM DIMMING TO BRIGHTENING
  • 4.3 VALUES OF EG PRIOR TO THE 1950S
  • 4.4 GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CHANGES
  • 5. THE CAUSES OF DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
  • 5.1 CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON EG
  • 6. INFLUENCE OF SOLAR RADIATION CHANGES (GLOBAL DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING) ON CLIMATE
  • 6.1 THE EVAPORATION CONUNDRUM - EVAPORATION TRENDS AND THEIR RELATION TO DIMMING AND BRIGHTENING
  • 6.2 SOIL MOISTURE TRENDS
  • 6.3 THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
  • 6.4 DAILY TEMPERATURE RANGE
  • 6.5 WIND SPEED AND THE MONSOON SYSTEM
  • 7. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 30 - SPACE WEATHER AND COSMIC RAY EFFECTS
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. SOLAR ACTIVITY, COSMIC RAYS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2.1 LONG-TERM COSMIC RAY INTENSITY VARIATIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2.2 THE POSSIBLE ROLE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE IN CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2.3 COSMIC RAYS AS AN IMPORTANT LINK BETWEEN SOLAR ACTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 2.4 THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GALACTIC COSMIC RAY SOLAR CYCLES AND THE EARTH'S CLOUD COVERAGE
  • 2.5 THE INFLUENCE OF COSMIC RAYS ON THE EARTH'S TEMPERATURE
  • 2.6 COSMIC RAY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER DURING MAUNDER MINIMUM
  • 2.7 THE INFLUENCE OF LONG-TERM VARIATIONS OF COSMIC RAY INTENSITY ON WHEAT PRICES (RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE) IN MEDIEVAL ENGLA ...
  • 2.8 THE CONNECTION BETWEEN ION GENERATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE BY COSMIC RAYS AND TOTAL SURFACE OF CLOUDS
  • 2.9 THE INFLUENCE OF BIG MAGNETIC STORMS (FORBUSH DECREASES) AND SOLAR COSMIC RAY EVENTS ON RAINFALL
  • 2.10 THE INFLUENCE OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES AND SOLAR ACTIVITY ON THE CLIMATE THROUGH ENERGETIC PARTICLE PRECIPITATION FROM I ...
  • 2.11 ON THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF GALACTIC COSMIC RAYS ON FORMATION OF CIRRUS HOLE AND GLOBAL WARMING
  • 2.12 DESCRIPTION OF LONG-TERM GALACTIC COSMIC RAY VARIATION BY BOTH CONVECTION-DIFFUSION AND DRIFT MECHANISMS WITH POSSIBILITY O ...
  • 2.13 INFLUENCE OF LONG-TERM VARIATION OF MAIN GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH COSMIC RAY CUTOFF RIGIDITY VARI ...
  • 2.14 ATMOSPHERIC IONIZATION BY COSMIC RAYS: THE ALTITUDE DEPENDENCE AND PLANETARY DISTRIBUTION
  • 2.15 PROJECT 'CLOUD' AS AN IMPORTANT STEP IN UNDERSTANDING THE LINK BETWEEN COSMIC RAYS AND CLOUD FORMATION
  • 3. THE INFLUENCE ON THE EARTH'S CLIMATE OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM MOVING AROUND THE GALACTIC CENTRE AND CROSSING GALAXY ARMS
  • 4. THE INFLUENCE OF MOLECULAR-DUST GALACTIC CLOUDS ON THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
  • 5. THE INFLUENCE OF INTERPLANETARY DUST SOURCES ON THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
  • 6. SPACE FACTORS AND GLOBAL WARMING
  • 7. THE INFLUENCE OF ASTEROIDS ON THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
  • 8. THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY SUPERNOVA ON THE EARTH'S CLIMATE
  • 9. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS
  • Acknowledgements
  • REFERENCES
  • PART 5 - ENGINEERING, SOCIETAL AND FORESTRY ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 31 - ENGINEERING ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. THE ROLE OF THE ENGINEER
  • 3. GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASES
  • 4. ENGINEERING ASPECTS OF THE 'SPHERES'
  • 5. ENGINEERING AND THE CARBON CYCLE
  • 6. NUTRIENT ENGINEERING
  • 7. ALBEDO ENGINEERING
  • 8. ENGINEERING-BASED DECISION-MAKING
  • REFERENCES
  • FURTHER READING
  • 32 - SOCIETAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. RISK AND VULNERABILITY
  • 3. DISEASE OCCURRENCE AND TRANSMISSION
  • 4. OCEAN AND LARGE-SCALE SURFACE WATER CHANGES
  • 5. SHIFTING BIOMES AND RESILIENCE
  • 6. EXTREME EVENTS
  • 7. FOOD AND WATER SUPPLY
  • 8. CONCLUSIONS
  • REFERENCES
  • 33 - CLIMATE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATIONS IN FOREST MANAGEMENT
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
  • 2. HOW CLIMATE IS CHANGING AND HOW THAT AFFECTS FORESTS
  • 3. MODELLING AND UNCERTAINTY
  • 4. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION
  • 5. RESILIENT FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND MANAGEMENT
  • 6. THE SILVICULTURE OF RESILIENCE
  • 7. ADAPTATION IN PRACTICE
  • 8. CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE
  • REFERENCES
  • Index
  • A
  • B
  • C
  • D
  • E
  • F
  • G
  • H
  • I
  • J
  • L
  • M
  • N
  • O
  • P
  • Q
  • R
  • S
  • T
  • U
  • V
  • W
  • Z
  • Back Cover
Chapter 1

Climate Change Through Earth's History


Jan Zalasiewicz,  and Mark Williams     Department of Geology, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK

Abstract


For at least 3.8 billion years, the Earth has possessed a climate system that continuously maintained a surface environment conducive to life, with liquid water at the surface, interchanging with various amounts of polar ice. The early Earth was warm, perhaps with higher concentrations of greenhouse gases compensating for a solar output smaller than present. Intermittent ice ages began ~2.5 billion years ago, perhaps associated with oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere and reduction in methane levels; these included more or less worldwide 'Snowball Earth' events, with ice extending to low latitudes. From the beginning of the Phanerozoic, the Earth has alternated between 'icehouse states' - albeit of lesser severity than the 'Snowball' events - and 'greenhouse states', such as that of the Mesozoic Era. The Earth is currently in an icehouse state marked by geologically closely spaced fluctuations of climate, largely paced by astronomical variations and amplified by changes in greenhouse gas levels. The present interglacial state of the Holocene is very likely to soon attain levels of climatic warmth not seen for several million years, because of human modification of climate drivers, notably greenhouse gases.

Keywords


Anthropocene; Climate; Glaciations; Palaeoclimate; Quaternary

Chapter Outline

1. Introduction 3

2. Climate Models 4

3. Long-Term Climate Trends 5

4. Early Climate History 6

5. Phanerozoic Glaciations 7

6. The Mesozoic - Early Cenozoic Greenhouse 8

7. Development of the Cenozoic Icehouse 9

8. Astronomical Modulation of Climate 9

9. Milankovitch Cyclicity in Quaternary (Pleistocene) Climate History 10

10. Quaternary Sub-Milankovitch Cyclicity 11

11. The Holocene 12

12. Climate of the Anthropocene 12

13. Conclusions 13

References 13

1. Introduction


Earth's climate is now changing in response to an array of anthropogenic perturbations, notably the release of greenhouse gases; an understanding of the rate, mode and scale of this change is now of literally vital importance to society. There is currently intense study of current and historical (i.e. measured) changes in both perceived climate drivers and the Earth system response. Such studies typically lead to climate models that, in linking proposed causes and effects, are aimed at allowing prediction of climate evolution over an annual to centennial scale. However, the Earth system is complex and imperfectly understood, not least as regards resolving the effect of multiple feedbacks in the system and of assessing the scale and importance of leads, lags and thresholds ('tipping points') in climate change. There is thus a need to set modern climate studies within a realistic context by examining the preserved history of the Earth's climate in the rock succession. Such study cannot provide precise replicas of the unplanned global experiment that is now underway (for the sum of human actions represents a geological novelty). However, it is providing an increasingly detailed picture of the nature, scale, rate and causes of past climate change and of its wider effects [1], regarding, for instance, sea level and biota. Imperfect as it is, it provides an indispensable context for modern climate studies, not least as a provision of ground truth for computer models (see below) of former and present climate. Aspects of climate that are recorded in strata include temperature and seasonality [2,3], humidity/aridity [4], and wind direction and intensity [5]. Classical palaeoenvironmental indicators such as glacial tills, reef limestones and desert dune sandstones have in recent years been joined by a plethora of other proxy indicators. These include many biological (fossilized pollen, insects, marine algae) and chemical proxies (e.g. Mg/Ca ratio in biogenic carbonates). Others are isotopic: oxygen isotopes provide information on temperature and ice volume; carbon isotopes reflect global biomass and inputs (of methane or carbon dioxide) into the ocean/atmosphere system; strontium and osmium are proxies for weathering, and the latter, with molybdenum also, for oceanic oxygenation levels. Other proxies include recalcitrant organic molecules: long-chain algal-derived alkenones as sea temperature indicators [6] and isorenieratane as a specific indicator of photic zone anoxia [7]. These and many other proxies are summarized in [8]. Levels of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane going back to 800 ka can be measured in ice cores [9]. For older periods, indirect measurements are made, based on proxies such as leaf stomata densities [10], palaeosol chemistry [11], boron isotopes [12] and alkenones [13]; estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations have also been arrived at by modelling [14,15].

2. Climate Models


Since the 1960s, computer models of climate have been developed that provide global and regional projections of future climate and reconstructions of deep time climate. Some of these models are used to simulate conditions during ancient icehouse climates, whilst others examine warm intervals of global climate, such as during the Mesozoic and Early Cenozoic greenhouse [16]. The most widely applied computer simulations of palaeoclimate are general circulation models (GCMs). The increasing complexity of these models has followed the exponential growth in computer power. GCMs divide the Earth into a series of grid boxes. Within each of box variables important for the prediction of climate are calculated, based upon the laws of thermodynamics and Newton's laws of motion. At progressive time steps of the model, the reaction between the individual grid boxes is calculated. GCM simulations rely on establishing key boundary conditions. These conditions include solar intensity, atmospheric composition (e.g. level of greenhouse gases), surface albedo, ocean heat transport, geography, orography, vegetation cover and orbital parameters. In general, the boundary conditions are more difficult to establish for increasingly older time periods. Thus, orbital parameters may be established with high precision in a computer model for a short time interval of the Pliocene [17]. But for much older time periods, for example the glacial world of the late Ordovician, the rock record is much less complete, and it is difficult to constrain most of the boundary conditions with a reasonable degree of precision [18]. Geological data (e.g. sedimentology, palaeontology) are essential to 'ground truth' climate models, to establish whether they are providing a realistic reconstruction of the ancient world and also to provide data for calibrating boundary conditions for the models. Of major importance for GCM palaeoclimate reconstructions is accurate information about sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as these provide a strong indication of how ocean circulation is working. The most extensive deep time (pre-Quaternary) reconstruction of SSTs is that of the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group [19]. This global dataset has been used for calibrating a range of climate model scenarios for the 'mid Pliocene warm period' (a.k.a. 'Mid Piacenzian Warm Period') and also includes an extensive catalogue of terrestrial data [20]. Warm periods of the Pliocene are often cited as a useful comparison (though definitely not an analogue) for the path of late twenty-first century climate [16].

3. Long-Term Climate Trends


Earth's known climate history, as decipherable through forensic examination of sedimentary strata, spans some 3.8 billion years (3.8 × 109 a), to the beginning of the Archaean (Fig. 1). The previous history, now generally assigned to the Hadean Eon, is only fragmentarily recorded as occasional ancient mineral fragments contained within younger rocks, particularly of highly resistant zircon dated to nearly 4.4 billion years (4.4 × 109 a) ago [21] and thus stretching back to very nearly the beginning of the Earth at 4.56 billion years ago [22]. The chemistry of these very ancient fragments hints at the presence of a hydrosphere even at that early date, though one almost certainly disrupted by massive meteorite impacts [23]. Certainly, by the beginning of the Archaean, oceans had developed, and there was an atmosphere sufficiently reducing to allow the preservation of detrital minerals such as pyrite and uraninite in river deposits that would not survive in the presence of free oxygen [24].
Figure 1 Global climate variation at six different timescales. (Data adapted from sources including [8,28,56,74,88,117].) On the left side of the figure, the figure 'T' denotes relative temperature. Note that...

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