Burn Out

The Endgame for Fossil Fuels
 
 
De Gruyter (Verlag)
  • 1. Auflage
  • |
  • erschienen am 25. April 2017
  • |
  • 288 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe-DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-0-300-22799-4 (ISBN)
 
An energy revolution is under way with far-reaching consequences for nations, companies, and the way we address climate change Low oil prices are sending shockwaves through the global economy, and longtime industry observer Dieter Helm explains how this and other shifts are the harbingers of a coming energy revolution and how the fossil fuel age will come to an end. Surveying recent surges in technological innovations, Helm's provocative new book documents how the global move toward the internet-of-things will inexorably reduce the demand for oil, gas, and renewables-and prove more effective than current efforts to avert climate change. Oil companies and energy utilities must begin to adapt their existing business models or face future irrelevancy. Oil-exporting nations, particularly in the Middle East, will be negatively impacted, whereas the United States and European countries that are investing in new technologies may find themselves leaders in the geopolitical game. Timely and controversial, this book concludes by offering advice on what governments and businesses can and should do now to prepare for a radically different energy future.
  • Englisch
  • New Haven
  • |
  • USA
  • Für Beruf und Forschung
  • Digitale Ausgabe
978-0-300-22799-4 (9780300227994)
weitere Ausgaben werden ermittelt
Dieter Helm is fellow in economics, New College, and professor of economic policy, University of Oxford. In 2017 he carried out the Cost of Energy Review for the UK government. He lives in Oxfordshire, UK.

  • Cover page
  • Halftitle page
  • Title page
  • Copyright page
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Preface to the updated edition and acknowledgements
  • Figures
  • Abbreviations
  • Introduction
  • PART ONE Predictable Surprises
  • CHAPTER 1 The end of the commodity super-cycle
  • Commodity cycles are not new
  • The long view
  • The peak oil delusion
  • Wrong again: failing to anticipate the phenomenal rise of China
  • Demand in developed countries: the continuing decoupling of GDP from energy demand
  • The 'surprise' of shale and fracking
  • Much more oil and gas to come
  • It's all over: the end of the commodity super-cycle
  • CHAPTER 2 Binding carbon constraints
  • The conventional approach to climate change: why fossil fuels have prospered since 1990
  • Paris 2015: good politics, bad economics
  • False hopes for current renewables
  • The oil companies' view of the future
  • Inter-fuel switching
  • Carbon prices and regulation
  • Further ahead: the stranded asset debate
  • CHAPTER 3 An electric future
  • The future is electric
  • New electricity-generation technologies
  • New storage technologies
  • New transmission and distribution technologies
  • New broadband energy- consumption technologies and smart meters
  • Electric cars and hybrids
  • New materials
  • New industrial production technologies: 3D printing, robots and AI
  • New technologies and the demand for fossil fuels
  • It can't be stopped
  • PART TWO The Geopolitical Consequences
  • CHAPTER 4 The US THE LUCKY COUNTRY
  • The US's oil century
  • The OPEC oil shocks of the 1970s and the US's first attempts at energy independence
  • The US goes to war, partly for oil
  • Win one: the great escape and the coming of shale
  • Win two: the carbon constraint - the second US surprise
  • Win three: the US and the new technologies
  • Out in front
  • CHAPTER 5 The Middle East MORE TROUBLE TO COME
  • Pre-OPEC: the long struggle for a fair share of the oil revenues
  • OPEC: never really a credible cartel
  • Saudi's responses
  • More Iranian and Iraqi oil to come
  • The consequences: Saudi Arabia's declining economic significance
  • Iran's future, and that of Iraq and Syria
  • CHAPTER 6 Russia BLIGHTED BY THE RESOURCE CURSE
  • Russia has always been a resource-based economy
  • Regaining political control over the oil and gas industries
  • Playing Putin's cards: Ukraine and its consequences
  • The pivot to China
  • The Russian budget and the long-run consequences of falling prices and new technologies
  • Two Russian futures
  • CHAPTER 7 China THE END OF THE TRANSITION
  • The historical legacy
  • China's economic model
  • Transforming world energy demand
  • China's global suppliers
  • China's blue-water fleet
  • China's state-owned energy companies
  • Weaknesses ahead: why China may not continue to drive energy demand
  • The implications for China's geopolitical role
  • CHAPTER 8 Europe NOT AS BAD AS IT SEEMS
  • European energy policy: the last twenty-five years
  • The climate change agenda
  • Security of supply, Eastern Europe and the Turkish connections
  • Taking stock: Europe faces the new energy world
  • All three predictable surprises coming to the rescue
  • PART THREE Creative Destruction and the Changing Corporate Landscape
  • CHAPTER 9 The gradual end of Big Oil
  • The twentieth-century model - and why it worked
  • The central role of market power
  • The search for new reserves
  • An example: BP
  • The last hurrah and the coming of shale
  • The oil-to-gas substitution: oil companies turn themselves into gas companies
  • The total carbon bubble, the stranded assets debate, and divestment campaigns
  • The deadly impact of competing technologies
  • What if oil companies believe that they are doomed in the long term?
  • CHAPTER 10 Energy utilities A BROKEN MODEL
  • Why the vertically integrated large utility model worked: the special problems with electricity
  • With a monopoly there are lots of possibilities
  • Zero marginal costs and fixed-price contracts
  • System operators and the grids
  • Storage
  • Future winners
  • What should the incumbents do?
  • CHAPTER 11 The new energy markets and the economics of the Internet
  • The coming of commodity markets
  • The risk problem: sunk costs, switching and spot prices
  • Zero marginal costs and zero prices
  • Capacity and FiT auctions: the case for simplification
  • Knock-on impacts on gas markets
  • New markets in traded regulatory asset bases: back to the utility model
  • Markets of the future
  • Conclusion
  • Endnotes
  • Bibliography
  • Index

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