Flood Forecasting

A Global Perspective
 
 
Academic Press
  • 1. Auflage
  • |
  • erschienen am 4. April 2016
  • |
  • 478 Seiten
 
E-Book | ePUB mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
E-Book | PDF mit Adobe DRM | Systemvoraussetzungen
978-0-12-801859-0 (ISBN)
 

Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective describes flood forecast systems and operations as they currently exist at national and regional centers around the globe, focusing on the technical aspects of flood forecast systems. This book includes the details of data flow, what data is used, quality control, the hydrologic and hydraulic models used, and the unique problems of each country or system, such as glacial dam failures, ice jams, sparse data, and ephemeral streams and rivers. Each chapter describes the system, including details about its strengths and weaknesses, and covers lessons learned. This helpful resource facilitates sharing knowledge that will lead to improvements of existing systems and provides a valuable reference to those wishing to develop new forecast systems by drawing on best practices.


  • Covers global systems allowing readers to see a worldwide perspective with different approaches used by existing flood forecast systems
  • Provides historical coverage allowing readers to understand why forecast systems have developed as they have and to see how specific systems have dealt with common problems encountered
  • Presents a vision of what appears to be the future of hydrologic forecasting and difficulties facing hydrologic forecasting
  • Provides a helpful resource to facilitate improvements to existing systems based on a best practices approach
  • Englisch
  • San Diego
  • |
  • USA
Elsevier Science
  • 59,53 MB
978-0-12-801859-0 (9780128018590)
0128018593 (0128018593)
weitere Ausgaben werden ermittelt
  • Front Cover
  • Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective
  • Copyright
  • Dedication
  • Contents
  • Contributors
  • Foreword
  • Acknowledgments
  • Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 National and Regional Flood Forecasting Systems
  • 3 Continental Modeling and Monitoring
  • 3.1 Challenges Facing Flood Forecasting
  • 3.2 Forecast Dissemination Issues
  • 4 Summary
  • References
  • Part 1: National and Regional Flood Forecasting Systems
  • Chapter 1: Australian Bureau of Meteorology Flood Forecasting and Warning
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Demographics, Climate, and Floods of Australia
  • 3 History of Flood Forecasting at the Bureau of Meteorology
  • 4 Current Characteristics of the Bureau and Its Services
  • 5 Operational Forecasting and Systems
  • 5.1 Data Systems and Quality Control
  • 5.2 Modeling for Flood Forecasting
  • 5.2.1 Statistical Models
  • 5.2.2 Hydrologic Simulation Models
  • 5.2.2.1 Reservoir Modeling
  • 5.2.2.2 Weather Predictions (QPF)
  • 5.2.2.3 Data Assimilation
  • 5.3 Production Environment: HYMODEL and HyFS
  • 5.4 Role of Expertise
  • 6 Operational Challenges
  • 6.1 Data and Services
  • 6.2 Modeling and Forecasting
  • 6.3 Warning and Communication
  • 6.4 Institutional Factors
  • 6.5 Understanding User Needs
  • 7 Future Directions
  • 8 Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • References
  • Chapter 2: Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Geography, Climate, and Floods in Brazil
  • 3 General Overview of Hydrological forecasts in Brazil
  • 4 Examples of Operational and Preoperational Forecasting Systems
  • 4.1 Doce River Flood Forecasting System Maintained by the Brazilian Geological Service (CPRM)
  • 4.2 Upper Uruguay River Basin Hydropower Reservoir Inflow Forecasting System
  • 4.3 São Francisco River Basin Ensemble Forecasting System
  • 4.4 Tocantins River Basin Forecasting System
  • 4.5 Experimental River Flow Forecasts in the Amazon
  • 5 Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter 3: The Development and Recent Advances of Flood Forecasting Activities in China
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Evolution of Flood Control and Management in China
  • 2.1 Start-up Phase: Before the Mid 1970s
  • 2.2 Development Phase: From the Mid 1970s to 1998
  • 2.3 Improvement Phase: From 1998 to the Present Day
  • 3 Development of Operational Hydrological Forecasting and Prediction in China
  • 3.1 Hydrological Information and Forecasting Administration
  • 3.2 Hydrological Monitoring and Data Transmission
  • 3.2.1 Hydrological Monitoring
  • 3.2.2 Data Transmission
  • 3.3 Hydrological Forecasting Method and Model
  • 3.4 Hydrological Forecasting System
  • 3.5 Application of New Technology in Hydrological Forecasting and Prediction
  • 3.5.1 Rainfall and Flood Joint Forecast
  • 3.5.2 Interactive Forecast Program
  • 3.5.3 Application of DEM, RS, and GIS Technologies
  • 4 Conclusions and Outlook
  • References
  • Chapter 4: A Regional Perceptive of Flood Forecasting and Disaster Management Systems for the Congo River Basin
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Physiographic Setting and Physical Characteristics of the Congo River Basin
  • 3 Flood-bearing Processes in the Congo River Basin
  • 3.1 Hydro Climate Processes
  • 3.2 A Wavelet Approach for Understanding Hydro Climate Processes in the Congo River Basin
  • 3.3 Land Use Dynamics
  • 3.4 Climate Change
  • 4 Trends and Socio-Economic Impacts of Floods in the Congo River Basin
  • 5 Current Status of Flood Forecasting and Disaster Management Systems in the Congo River Basin
  • 5.1 Hydrometeorological Services and Monitoring
  • 5.1.1 Ground-Based Monitoring
  • 5.1.2 Satellite-Based Observation
  • 5.2 Data Management
  • 5.3 Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Forecasting
  • 5.4 Institutional Arrangement and Flood Management Policy
  • 6 Conclusion
  • References
  • Chapter 5: Flood Forecasting in Germany - Challenges of a Federal Structure and Transboundary Cooperation
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 International Cooperation - The Rhine Basin
  • 3 Measured Meteorological and Hydrological Data
  • 4 Numerical Weather Predictions
  • 5 Snowmelt Forecasts
  • 6 Regional Organization and Transboundary Data Exchange
  • 7 River Forecasting Models
  • 7.1 The LARSIM Water Balance Model
  • 7.2 The WAVOS Water Level Forecasting System
  • 7.3 Components of WAVOS Rhein
  • 8 Forecast Dissemination
  • 9 Flood Partnerships
  • 10 Summary
  • References
  • Chapter 6: Operational Flood Forecasting in Israel
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Climate and Hydrological Characteristics of Israel
  • 3 The Flood Forecasting Modeling System in Israel
  • 3.1 Flood Forecasting at the Israeli Domain Using the WRF-Hydro Model
  • 3.2 Flood Forecasting for the Tel Aviv Metropolis Using the HEC-HMS Model
  • 4 Summary
  • References
  • Chapter 7: Operational Hydrologic Forecast System in Russia
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Hydrological Practices in Russia
  • 3 The Hydrologic Forecasting System of the Roshydromet
  • 4 Hydrometeorological Data
  • 5 Long-Range Spring Flood Predictions
  • 6 Early Warning Flood Forecasting Systems
  • 7 Conclusions
  • References
  • Chapter 8: Increasing Early Warning Lead Time Through Improved Transboundary Flood Forecasting in the Gash River Basin, Horn of Africa
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Building a Flood Forecast and Early Warning System
  • 3 Geographical Setting of the Gash River Basin
  • 4 The Modeling Approach
  • 4.1 Topographic Model Setup
  • 4.2 Spatial and Nonspatial Databases
  • 4.3 Terrain Processing
  • 4.4 Hydrological Parameter Extraction
  • 4.5 Hydrometeorological Model Setup
  • 4.6 Model Setup and Simulation Run
  • 4.7 Model Calibration and Validation
  • 5 Results and Discussion
  • 6 Conclusion
  • Acknowledgments
  • References
  • Chapter 9: Flood Forecasting - A National Overview for Great Britain
  • 1 Background and Catalysts for Change
  • 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.2 Flood Risk in England, Wales, and Scotland
  • 1.3 Flood Forecasting and Warning Landscape 1998-2009
  • 1.4 The Catalyst for Change: Summer 2007 Floods
  • 1.5 The Pitt Review and the Establishment of the Flood Forecasting Centre
  • 1.6 Establishment of the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service
  • 2 Countrywide Flood Forecasting Modeling Approach
  • 2.1 Drivers, History, and Context for a Countrywide Flood Forecasting Approach
  • 2.2 Countywide Fluvial Flood Forecasting
  • 2.3 Countrywide Surface Water Flood Forecasting
  • 2.4 Countrywide Coastal Flood Forecasting
  • 2.5 Countrywide Groundwater Flood Forecasting
  • 3 Forecast Dissemination Protocols and Products
  • 3.1 Flood Forecasting and Warning Dissemination
  • 3.2 Flood Forecast Products and Services
  • 4 Measuring Performance of the Flood Forecasting and Warning Service
  • 4.1 Introduction
  • 4.2 Assessing Local Model Performance
  • 4.3 National Assessment of Local Model, and National Model Performance
  • 4.4 Formal National Measure of Overall Performance of the Forecasting and Warning Service
  • 5 Future Forecasting Challenges
  • 5.1 Recent Experience and Key Research Areas
  • 5.2 Nowcasting Science and Short Lead Times
  • 5.3 Observations and Instrumentation
  • 5.4 Estuaries and Coastal Modeling
  • 5.5 Integrated Modeling and Forecasting
  • 5.6 Longer Lead Time Forecasting: Day 6 to Seasonal
  • 5.7 People, Skills, Interpretation, and Engagement
  • Disclaimer
  • Dedication
  • References
  • Chapter 10: Flood Forecasting in the United States NOAA /National Weather Service
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 History
  • 3 A Brief History of Models and Modeling Systems Used by the NWS
  • 3.1 NWS River Forecasting Paradigm
  • 3.2 Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) Model
  • 3.3 Data Acquisition and Processing
  • 3.3.1 U.S. Geological Survey Stream Gaging Program
  • 3.3.2 Cooperative Observer Program
  • 3.3.3 HADS
  • 3.3.4 Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) Network
  • 3.4 NWSRFS
  • 3.4.1 Operational Forecast System (OFS)
  • 3.4.2 Interactive Forecast Program (IFP)
  • 3.4.3 Calibration System (CS)
  • 3.4.4 Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) System
  • 3.4.5 Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) System
  • 3.5 Models
  • 3.6 Methods
  • 3.6.1 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
  • 3.6.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)
  • 3.6.3 Temperature Estimation
  • 4 Current Models and Modeling System
  • 4.1 Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
  • 4.2 Models
  • 4.2.1 Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) Model
  • 5 Current Operations
  • 5.1 AWIPS
  • 5.2 AHPS
  • 5.3 Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)
  • 5.3.1 Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE)
  • 5.3.2 Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor (MRMS) System
  • 5.4 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS)
  • 5.5 Forecast Products
  • 5.6 Forecast Evaluation
  • 5.6.1 Forecast Verification
  • 5.6.2 Service Assessment
  • 6 Additional Topics
  • 6.1 Flash Flood Watches and Warnings
  • 6.2 AFWS
  • 7 Future Developments
  • 7.1 Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)
  • 7.2 National Water Center
  • References
  • Part 2: Continental Modeling and Monitoring - The Future?
  • Chapter 11: On the Operational Implementation of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 EFAS Structure
  • 3 Data Acquisition
  • 4 Model Components
  • 4.1 Meteorological Models
  • 4.2 LISFLOOD
  • 5 Generating Forecasts
  • 5.1 Infrastructure
  • 5.2 Scheduling and Execution
  • 6 Forecast Products
  • 6.1 Flood Alerts
  • 6.1.1 EFAS Thresholds and Return Periods
  • 6.2 Post-Processed Forecasts
  • 6.3 Flash Flood Alerts
  • 6.4 Rainfall Animation
  • 6.5 Soil Moisture and Snow Anomaly Maps
  • 7 Forecast Dissemination
  • 7.1 EFAS-IS
  • 7.1.1 EFAS Web Services
  • 7.2 Email Alerts and Daily Overview
  • 8 Operational Performance
  • 8.1 Monitoring
  • 8.2 System Performance
  • 9 Case Studies
  • 9.1 General Performance
  • 9.2 Central European Floods in Summer 2013
  • 9.3 Floods on the Balkan in May 2014
  • 10 Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References
  • Chapter 12 Developing Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Colombia (South America)
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 Physiography and Demographics
  • 3 Development of a Pilot for the National Hydrological Forecasting System
  • 3.1 Magdalena River
  • 3.2 Upper Cauca Basin
  • 3.3 Bogotá River
  • 4 Design and Setup of the National Hydrological Forecasting System
  • 4.1 Forecasting System Infrastructure
  • 4.2 Monitoring Data
  • 4.3 Forecasting Processes and Models
  • 4.4 Forecasting Outputs and Products
  • 5 Expansion of the Pilot System
  • 6 Discussion and Outlook
  • References
  • Part 3: Challenges Facing Flood Forecasting
  • Chapter 13: Streamflow Data
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 History of Streamgaging in the United States
  • 3 Streamflow Collection and Computation
  • 3.1 Measuring Stage
  • 3.2 Measuring Streamflow
  • 3.3 Stage-Discharge Relation
  • 3.3.1 Rating Controls
  • 3.3.2 Rating Extension
  • 3.3.3 Temporary Changes in Control and the Shifting-Control Method for Simple Ratings
  • 3.3.4 Index-Velocity Method
  • 3.3.5 Uncertainty in Ratings
  • 4 Delivery of Streamflow Information
  • 4.1 Streamflow Forecast
  • 5 Opportunities for the Streamgage Program
  • References
  • Chapter 14: A Simple Streamflow Forecasting Scheme for the Ganges Basin
  • 1 Introduction
  • 1.1 Floods in Bangladesh and the Role of Forecasting
  • 1.2 Current and Prior Efforts in Bangladesh Flood Forecasting
  • 1.3 A Simple Flood Forecasting Scheme: Hypothesis and Questions
  • 1.4 Datasets Used in the Study
  • 2 The Ganges Floods and Rainfall-Runoff Relationships
  • 2.1 The Seasonality of the Ganges Basin
  • 2.2 Rainfall-Runoff Relationship Over the Ganges Basin
  • 3 A Simple Q-Q and Q+P-Q Model for the Ganges
  • 3.1 A Persistence-Based Q-Q Model
  • 3.2 A Simple Q+P-Q Model
  • 3.3 Adding the "Perfect Rainfall Forecast"
  • 4 Results
  • 5 Discussion
  • Acknowledgment
  • References
  • Index
  • Back Cover

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