Risk Analysis

Source: Wikipedia. Pages: 78. Chapters: Murphy's law, Risk management, Precautionary principle, Unintended consequences, Fault tree analysis, Fuzzy-trace theory, IT risk management, Probability box, MOSAIC Threat Assessment Systems, Peren-Clement-Index, Sneak circuit analysis, Standard of Good Practice, Factor Analysis of Information Risk, Institutional Risk Analytics, InfoSTEP, Life-critical system, Investment Controlling, Risk observatory, Information Security Forum, The PRS Group, Inc., Mortgage underwriting, Existential risk, Core damage frequency, Inverse consequences, Risk factor, Accident, Probabilistic risk assessment, Risk box, Extreme risk, Certified Risk Manager, Asset, A History of Murphy's Law, Why-Because analysis, Kurtosis risk, Singleton, Litigation risk analysis, Society for Risk Analysis, Skewness risk, Quantitative risk assessment software, Marine accident investigation, Criticality index, Salamanca Risk Management Group, Postcautionary principle, APSYS, Supply Chain Risk Management, Process decision program chart, Stress-Strength Analysis, Collateral consequence, Hutber's law, IT network assurance, Project risk management, Mrs. Murphy's Law. Excerpt: Fuzzy-Trace Theory (FTT) is a theory that is used in several different areas of psychology, such as cognitive, developmental and social psychology. FTT is a theory of memory and cognition with broad ramifications for the study of judgment and decision-making and two decades of empirical support. Although often mentioned in the scientific literature as a dual-process account, FTT differs in some crucial and distinctive points. For example, FTT differs from other dual-process approaches in emphasizing the existence of degrees of rationality as well as the role of emotion in decisions that involve risk. Most importantly, FTT differs from standard dual-process accounts in its view of intuition as developing into adulthood and representing an advanced form of mature reasoning. Moreover, the integration between memory and reasoning makes FTT capable of providing a unique perspective to the field. FTT¿s counterintuitive and paradoxical findings (e.g. in memory testing, false memory persistence, non-numerical framing effects and reductions in risk-taking preference from childhood to adulthood) address new challenges for standard dual-process approaches to rationality. Although the computer metaphor provided the explanatory framework of cognition for more than thirty years, major phenomena of judgment and decision-making are unrelated to computational capacity in working memory. Researchers have studied many tasks, and each has shown the same result: accuracy of reasoning and memory are often independent (see Reyna & Kiernan, 1994). In response to the mounting evidence for memory and judgment independence, Valerie Reyna and Charles Brainerd introduced Fuzzy-Trace Theory to explain this finding and to accommodate the fact that information (held and operated on in memory) influences judgment and decision-making. This theory emerged by linking basic concepts in psycholinguistic research and Gestalt theory. In 1990, two articles were published that introduced FTT as a comprehens