This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis.
Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position.
Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Laurent Ferrara is head of the International Macroeconomics Division at the Banque de France and adjunct professor of Economics at the University of Paris Nanterre. He holds a PhD in Applied Mathematics from the University of Paris North (2001) and a postdoctoral qualification in Economics from the University of Paris 1 - Panthéon - Sorbonne (2007). His academic research mainly focuses on international economics, macroeconomic forecasting, non-linear econometric methods and business cycle analysis.
Ignacio Hernando has been head of the International Economics Division at Banco de España since 2010. He received his B.A. in Economics at Universidad Complutense de Madrid, an M.A. in Monetary Economics at CEMFI, and a PhD in Economics at UNED. He is a member of the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. His main research interests are international macroeconomics and monetary policy.
Daniela Marconi is a senior advisor at Banca d'Italia. Since 2002, she has worked in the International Relations and Economics Directorate, conducting macroeconomic analysis and research on emerging markets. She holds an M.A. in Economics from CORIPE Piemonte (Turin, Italy) and an M.A. in Economics from Duke University (NC, USA). Her main academic interests are international macroeconomics, technological advances, economic growth and environmental economics. She has authored numerous papers and articles in these areas.
Introduction.- Part I. Global Growth Slowdown: Supply-Side Factors.- The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis.- Growth Potential in Emerging Countries.- What Are the Drivers of TFP Growth? An Empirical Assessment.- The Unintended Consequences of Globalization and Technological Progress.- Part II. Global Growth Slowdown: Demand-Side Explanations.- Trade Weakness: Cycle or Trend?.- The Role of Debt Dynamics in US Household Consumption.- Explaining Weak Investment Growth After the Great Recession: A Macro-Panel Analysis.- Part III. New Challenges for Monetary Policies at a Time of High Uncertainty, Low Inflation and Low Real Interest Rates.- Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges.- Determinants and Implications of Low Global Inflation Rates.- The Global Real Interest Rate: Past Developments and Outlook.- Part IV. Exchange Rate Shocks, Capital Flows and International Spillovers.- The Nature of the Shock Matters: Some Model-Based Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rate.- International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care).- International Spillovers of Non-Standard Monetary Policy: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe.